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Is Victory At Stake In State (McCain, Florida)
Tampa Tribune ^ | October 26, 2008 | William March

Posted on 10/27/2008 8:01:50 PM PDT by flattorney

As the presidential race narrows to a handful of states where the two candidates are clawing to get over the top, Florida would be each man's top prize. And the Tampa Bay area is their key to Florida. As in 2000 and 2004, the race here has exploded in a welter of television ads, "robocalls," visiting celebrities and mega-rallies. The result, according to experts, political insiders and a rash of conflicting polls, is a race in Florida that's simply too close to call. Either candidate could win.

But for John McCain and Barack Obama, a win would have drastically different meanings. Obama can win the presidency in Florida, but he can't lose it here. McCain can lose the presidency in Florida, but he can't win it here. That's because for McCain, Florida is a must-win. The arithmetic of the Electoral College and the states where the two are competing mean McCain can't reach a majority without Florida's 27 electoral votes. "If Obama wins Florida, we'll all go to bed early on election night," said veteran political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia. But even if McCain scores a victory in Florida, as his supporters say they are confident he will, he must win other contested battleground states to become president. Unfortunately for McCain, those are all states that President Bush won in 2004, but where Obama is now leading, tied or close. "All the battlegrounds are red," Sabato said. Besides the largest battleground, Florida, he listed Ohio, Virginia and Colorado, all with Obama leads, and North Carolina, Indiana, Nevada, Montana and North Dakota, where polls generally show tossups.

That means Obama is on offense, threatening to take back Republican-leaning states. McCain is on defense in a war being fought on what should be his turf. "Obama doesn't need Florida - he's got so many advantages now," Sabato said. "A chance of carrying both Montana and North Dakota, both strong red states, and a tie in Indiana, where Bush won by 27 points in '04." Nonetheless, Obama has been drastically outspending McCain in Florida on television advertising, and equaling or exceeding him in personal appearances. Obama; his wife, Michelle; Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton; and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson barnstormed Florida for the first three days of last week to urge early voting. McCain answered with two stops in Florida on Thursday, plus tours by daughter Meghan McCain and Sen. Joe Lieberman.

More Freedom For Obama - - With a significant Electoral College lead, Obama has the luxury of campaigning where he wants, but McCain must keep one foot planted in Florida and pivot to other states. McCain has been promising local supporters he would bring his Florida TV spending up to parity. Brian Ballard, his state co-chairman, expected near-equality by last week. But for the seven days ending Tuesday, Obama spent $4.3 million to McCain's $1.1 million plus another $400,000 spent on McCain's behalf by the national Republican Party, said Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political spending. The Nielsen Co., which tracks numbers of political spots, showed a 3-to-1 advantage for Obama through Wednesday.

Obama will appear at a rally with Bill Clinton in Orlando on Wednesday. Sarah Palin will be in Tampa and Kissimmee today, and Joe Biden is to appear in New Port Richey on Monday, following the visit of his wife, Jill, to Tampa on Saturday. McCain's wife, Cindy, and Rudy Giuliani will be in West Palm Beach today.

McCain Was To Win Easily - - McCain, many experts say, should not be in danger of losing Florida. After Obama and other Democratic candidates boycotted the state's Jan. 29 primary and Obama didn't set up a campaign organization until summer, many insiders expected a relatively easy McCain win. McCain also had the support of Gov. Charlie Crist, whose endorsement helped him win the Florida primary. Crist promised to deliver the state for McCain. The governor may still keep that promise. But since McCain picked Palin as his running mate, disappointing Crist, there have been questions on whether Crist has been campaigning wholeheartedly for McCain. The governor contends he has. (This is old news. Charlie has been “properly motivated” and is now on board 100% - FlA) No one denies there has been tension and disagreement between the state party and the McCain campaign about who should run the show. (There is much I would like to state on this point, but will save it for after the election – FlA)

There's also disagreement among recent polls. - - Some show McCain coming back from a deficit early in the month to lead by a percentage point or two, statistical ties. But a few have shown Obama with leads of 5 to 7 percentage points. "Some of these pollsters are going to look smart and some stupid on Election Day," Sabato said. Even some veteran Florida political operatives are mystified. "Bizarre numbers," said longtime GOP strategist Cory Tilley. "You just have to come to one conclusion: It's close - probably close to the margin of error." Ballard said private polls he has seen convince him McCain is slightly ahead.

New Registrants Throw Polls - - Democratic pollster Jim Kitchens offered an explanation for the mixed results: Pollsters don't know how to account for the large numbers of new voters, mostly young people and minorities, that Obama's campaign has registered. Pollsters "weight" their samples, counting some responses more, to make up for underrepresented demographic groups. Some pollsters may be weighting young and minority respondents to take account of the new registrants. But will those traditionally low-turnout minorities and young people show up to vote, proving the polls accurate? "Ain't that the question?" Kitchens said. "I think it's close, but Obama has a bit of an edge."

Tilley said the election "will come down to who has the best organization, who can motivate their base, turn out their voters and sway those undecideds. "The good news on the Republican side is we've proven we do that pretty well," he said. (But only in the last 3 weeks. Further, Obama’s campaign is dramatically more organized and focused than McCain’s - FlA)

But Tallahassee City Council member Allan Katz, an early Obama supporter, said the Obama campaign has changed the dynamics of Florida politics with its thousands of new registrants and by putting together the kind of turnout organization Florida Republicans have long had but Democrats never did. "We have a very good chance of carrying Florida," he said. Judging by where he's putting his money and his time, one person who believes him is Barack Obama.


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: battlegroundstates; fl2008; florida; mccain; mccainpalin; noobama; palin; swingstates
The Tampa Tribune endorses John McCain for President – FlA
From FlAttorney’s FR “Straight Talk” page – “2008 Presidential Election” Section:

10.27.08: Latest Florida Polls, RCP Average, Obama +2.7 down from +4.2 recent peak
10.27.08: SFARI PAC UM F25 Counties Poll, Obama +2.8 (25 of 67 FL Counties, 85% of State Pop.)
10.27.08: Florida Newspapers Endorsements (Circulation): Obama: St. Petersburg Times(316,007); Miami Herald(240,223); Orlando Sentinel(227,593); Palm Beach Post(164,474); Sarasota Herald Tribune(114,904); Daytona Beach News Journal(99,627); Florida Today(93,604); Pensacola News-Journal(68,962); Naples Daily News(66,272); Lakeland Ledger(65,948) || McCain: The Tampa Tribune(220,522); Bradenton Herald(48,618); Palatka Daily News(11,000); Cape Coral Daily Breeze(2,015)
Total National Newspapers Endorsements: Obama 194; McCain 82
<> Endorsed '04 Bush, now Obama: 38: '04 Kerry now McCain: 4
Democrat Winning Presidents that won Florida since 1950:
1996: Clinton 48% / 42%(Dole) EC 379/159 (Clinton +6)
1976: Carter 52% / 47%(Ford) EC 297/240 (Carter +5)
1964: Johnson 51% / 49%(Goldwater) EC 486/52 (Johnson +2)
Recent Florida Presidential Margins
2004 Bush 5%
2000 Bush <1%
1996 Clinton 5%
1992 Bush 1% (Clinton Won Election)

TAB

1 posted on 10/27/2008 8:01:51 PM PDT by flattorney
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To: flattorney
Are you trying to depress people, keep the GOP turnout low??
2 posted on 10/27/2008 8:03:20 PM PDT by Perdogg (Raila Amollo Odinga - community organizer)
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To: flattorney

Lot of illegals down there, hard to tell.


3 posted on 10/27/2008 8:04:01 PM PDT by allmost
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To: Perdogg
McCain will carry FL and do so by close to GWB margins in 04 - That is between 3-5%. This after Obama out spent him by millions and millions here....

CO....still looks scary...... And to a degree so does VA...Though I just don't see Obama winning there in the end.

Early in the night NH will be a telling sign to a degree. Well that and PA. If both go to Obama and can be called for him (early) we are in for a rough ride. If PA is too close to call by 8pm...that bodes well for us. If NH goes McCain that all the polls and their predictions are out the window....(mening if they can call NH early in the night for McCain).

4 posted on 10/27/2008 8:09:14 PM PDT by SevenMinusOne
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To: allmost
The Panhandle will give Mac the win. The area has grown mostly retired Military
5 posted on 10/27/2008 8:12:19 PM PDT by scooby321 (Cai)
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To: scooby321

I took a drive from Panama City to Pensacola this year and it has really grown. I hope your right.


6 posted on 10/27/2008 8:14:35 PM PDT by eyedigress ( My first 4 wheeler was on the rocks in Fairbanks)
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To: Perdogg

the poll on yahoo at the moment cannot be correct.


7 posted on 10/27/2008 8:16:34 PM PDT by ken21 (people die and you never hear from them again.)
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To: ken21

Yahoo uses good ‘ole AP for their polls. I wonder why AP doesn’t put its own poll up? Instead, it shows the RCP averages to make it look worse for Mac. I hate the AP....


8 posted on 10/27/2008 8:24:34 PM PDT by CycloneGOP
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To: CycloneGOP

i hope yahoo goes broke!

all of their “news” is leftist.


9 posted on 10/27/2008 8:27:51 PM PDT by ken21 (people die and you never hear from them again.)
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To: flattorney

jon and other republicans should of give the illegal situation more thought. i bet they have also scarfed up some of those bogus voter registration ss numbers too,


10 posted on 10/27/2008 8:58:07 PM PDT by dalebert
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