Posted on 10/27/2008 2:02:11 PM PDT by Osama Obama
Misspellings of bellwether will be my bellwether.
Dixville Notch and Hart’s Point
i say Georgia... if McCain’s numbers aren’t where they should be, i’ll take that as a bad sign... (this is how i knew GW was going to win 4 years ago, after all the Kerry “early polling” hype on election day)...
When trolls start asking this question.
Note: Florida won’t announce results until the western Panhandle in Central Time Zone completes their voting.
I would use your list substituting Ohio for Florida.
Before I will look at internals for catholics, married women, white women, elderly voters, and suburban voters at reliable polls.
McCain should be ahead with all of them to have a chance of winning.
On election night, I will look at cnn.com’s state voting breakdown (ignoring all the commentary). McCain’s margins in Virginia will be telling along with his margins in NC.
I’d be watching Sununu in New Hampshire and Liddy Dole’s in North Carolina and crossing my fingers.
When I start hearing stories of Skinheads busted for plotting to kill “him” I’ll know “his” side is desperate.
When Keith Olbermann’s head explodes on TV.
You mean the 150k that turned out for the free Santana concert that Obama happened to show up at?
The tell will be returns from Virginia and PA. That is the centerpiece of Obama’s strategery. With no Virginia, he needs CO, NV, and NM.
Also, if McCain has a healthy margin in VA +3 or +4%, and PA is tight, that tells you that Obama is in trouble. If Obama loses VA and NH, he’s done you can go to sleep.
I don’t think OH is a battleground per se. Just like FL from 2000 to 2004, the media is looking there, but the margin in OH will be a decent one of 4-5% for McCain.
I think FL, NC, VA....But there has to be a caution here. Remember, the networks call these states based on “EXIT POLLS” .....Why would anyone think that these exit polls will be much different from these polls today?? If McCain wins FL comfortably, and NC quickly, then I think he has a good chance. If he loses FL, I think thats probably all she wrote....
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What is the over/under on the number of states that will be called for 0bama, only later (maybe much later) it falls into McCains camp.....Three??
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And finally, the last thing you should base your guess on is “turnout”....Early reports are wrong every election!
My very first indicator is whether or not the Phillies win tonight and ruin The One’s plans to get a World Series audience for his vaudeville show. That will mean that God is truly pulling some strings.
when they STOP talkng about states returns, and instead turn to polling of already voted persons
After a "non-call" on NC and VA, watch NH and PA. If McCain wins either of these, it might not be close---obviously PA.
Finally, VA. If they "call" VA for Obama early, we can be in trouble, esp. if PA isn't a clear win, because then the networks will say the election is "over."
Thanks for that tidbit!
Pennsylvania is going to be an extremely interesting state to watch. Something tells me McCain may pull it off.
I used to think she was so pretty...before those lips just wrinkled up like prunes...
When the cameras zoom to Obama’s victory platform around 6:30 ET. No kidding. That is why he built it.
Uh-oh, this thread has been vannitized.
It seems to me they have already called every state early. Weeks ago in fact!
I won't believe any state that gets called with less than 80% of the votes actually counted and reported, and even then I might reserve judgement if the numbers don't make it obvious. The exit polls are garbage even in a normal year and this year isn't normal.
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