Undecideds will break in our direction. Every state we are tied in or slightly trailing by election days goes for us. That’s how I see it.
I am learning a lot of Geography and Statistics in this election (it’s fun!)
Okay Fact Time:
Bush Votes: 1,455,713
Kerry Votes: 1,259,171
Winning Margin: 196,542 votes - And this was with Kerry winning a 96,000 (stl city), and a 54,000 margin in stl county and Jackson county each for a KC/STL swing of 204,000 and yet he still lost the state by 196,000 votes?
Obama needs to double the margins from KC/STL, or at least increase it by 50% and run better than Kerry did in Boone county to offset the rest of MO, but even then it looks pretty slim. It’s hard to imagine McCain would do worse than the 19% Bush got in STL city. This state is +2.5 McCain and I see no where Obama can make that up. Other than he’d have to run large margins (like 60-40) in the counties that split 50-50 in 2004. I don’t see that happening.
I love math.