Poll: Race Hurts Obama In State

FAYETTEVILLE — Loyalty to Hillary Clinton, race issues and perceptions about religion leave Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama lagging behind Republican John McCain in Arkansas according to the 10th annual Arkansas Poll.

In the presidential race, 54 percent of those polled would vote for Hillary Clinton if she were on the ballot, results said. Instead, Republican nominee John McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 36 percent in the results with 15 percent of Arkansans remaining undecided. Obama, D-Ill., defeated former Arkansas first lady Clinton, D-N.Y., in the Democratic primary.

There was not a similar question regarding former Gov. Mike Huckabee, who was a rival to McCain for the Republican nomination.

State GOP chairman Dennis Milligan said he was not surprised by the margin of McCain’s lead. Darinda Sharp, a spokeswoman for the state Democratic Party, predicted the margin between McCain and Obama is much closer because polls under-represent young voters and minorities. Poll data showed 9.2 percent of responders were black compared with 15.7 percent of the state population.

In a series of questions about the presidential race, the poll asked: “And, some people find this next question difficult. We are interested in whether racial issues may impact the presidential race. First, what percentage of people you know would NOT vote for a presidential candidate who was black?” Of those responding, 34.2 percent said they knew someone who would not vote for a black presidential candidate. This compares to a national average in a recent Pew Center poll of 21 percent.

The question on race was phrased indirectly because a blunt question, such as if the respondent would consider voting for a black, had a clear “socially acceptable” answer and responders would be biased to give it, said poll director Janine Parry and colleague Pearl K. Ford. Both are political science professors for the Fulbright College of Arts and Sciences at the university.

Also, 20 percent of those answering the Arkansas Poll about Obama’s religion said the candidate was Muslim, which he is not. This compares with 12 percent in national polls.

Last year’s Arkansas poll showed a clear preference for a Democrat over a Republican, but political polls this year in Arkansas show McCain consistently leading. The Arkansas Poll, therefore, had questions about Clinton and race to see if those factors are contributing. However, there are probably other factors the poll did not address, Ford said. “For instance, Obama didn’t open a campaign headquarters in Arkansas until last month and has never been here” as a presidential candidate, she said.

District-by-district results did not show northwest Arkansas’ 3rd Congressional District as significantly different on any of the ballot measures or the presidential race.

2 posted on 10/24/2008 10:38:24 PM PDT by Jeff Head (Freedom is not free...never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))

Also, 20 percent of those answering the Arkansas Poll about Obama’s religion said the candidate was Muslim, which he is not.

Gotta love this advocacy journalism. The correct statement is: Also, 20 percent of those answering the Arkansas Poll about Obama’s religion said the candidate was Muslim, which he SAYS HE is not.

3 posted on 10/24/2008 10:39:30 PM PDT by Chet 99 (Vote McCain/Palin, or this will be our future: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTb5EFZmgbs)

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