We don't have President Kerry. The polls said Kerry would lose... and he did. Of the 20 national polls conducted closest to the 2004 election, 17 had Bush ahead, 2 had Kerry ahead, and 1 had a tie.
That's pretty good, considering the outcome was Bush 50.7%, Kerry 48.3%.
Yep and if the election were held today you’d probably be right. But it isn’t. We’ll see the gap close in the final week.
This is where your argument breaks down. Pollsters do not want to be wrong right before the election because then they are considered unreliable. They will attempt to shape public opinion with Democrat oversampling until about two or three days before the election. Then they will pull way back, and it will look like an amazing amount of independents are breaking for McCain.
This is why by the polls, it appears that Obama is winning Pennsylvania by double digits, but the Obama campaign's internals only have him up by +2, McCain is fighting for PA with many appearances, and Ed Rendell is calling Obama back to the state. It is also why McCain/Palin looks pretty calm, and Obama's operatives are so angry. Because the campaigns are well aware that these public polls are oversampling Democrats by an enormous amount.
This happens every election year. In fact, if you notice, most of the pollsters have been on TV recalling how Reagan won the election in the last three days. Reagan was winning a whole lot longer than the last three days. However, they did not adjust their polling samples until the last three days to show the real makeup of the electorate.
All that to say, you may be right. We may be in real trouble. BUT there is no reason to give up hope yet or to take these polls to heart. Not until closer to the election. Then we should get a better picture of what is really happening in the electorate. However, the fact that everything is beginning to close and trend toward McCain should give us a good idea that all is not lost . . .