[Alter Kaker]

If McCain wins PA, it’s over. He should win Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina. With PA he could LOSE Bush states Nevada, Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia and still win the election.

You're forgetting New Mexico. If Obama loses PA but keeps all the other Kerry states + NM, IA, CO and VA he gets exactly 270 votes. That's enough to win.

That's not a crazy scenario, as Obama is +7 in New Mexico, +6 in Colorado, +8 in Iowa, +6 in Virginia, and +3 in Nevada.

And that's assuming McCain actually pulls off a come-behind in Pennsylvania.

Obama could also still win w/o Pa if he knocks off Missouri (most recent Fox-Rasmussen Poll O 49, M 44) or Indiana (Big Ten and Survey USA both have Obama up). And I'm not sure why you're so absolutely confident that McCain has nothing to worry about in NC, OH or FL, even though all three are trending ok-ish over the last 24 hours.

Bottom line -- if McCain wins PA, he's in a bit better position, but it's definitely not over if he wins it. A PA win and an election loss are totally possible pairings.

[goldstategop]

Perhaps. But what if all the polls are wrong? They were wrong about Kerry.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Radio Free Tuscaloosa]

Bottom line -- if McCain wins PA, he's in a bit better position, but it's definitely not over if he wins it. A PA win and an election loss are totally possible pairings.

I think it's over not so much from an electoral college standpoint but because Pennsylvania will be such a bellwether for the rest of the country.

[Norman Bates]

Come on. You don’t actually believe McCain is 6 down in VA? M-D a few days ago had it at 2 and yesterday I saw a local poll showing it a 1 point race. This is all before or at the very beginning of McCain’s ad surge which is really happening now.

If McCain wins PA he won’t lose VA.

[Thickman]

You're forgetting New Mexico. If Obama loses PA but keeps all the other Kerry states + NM, IA, CO and VA he gets exactly 270 votes. That's enough to win. That's not a crazy scenario, as Obama is +7 in New Mexico, +6 in Colorado, +8 in Iowa, +6 in Virginia, and +3 in Nevada. And that's assuming McCain actually pulls off a come-behind in Pennsylvania. Obama could also still win w/o Pa if he knocks off Missouri (most recent Fox-Rasmussen Poll O 49, M 44) or Indiana (Big Ten and Survey USA both have Obama up). And I'm not sure why you're so absolutely confident that McCain has nothing to worry about in NC, OH or FL, even though all three are trending ok-ish over the last 24 hours. Bottom line -- if McCain wins PA, he's in a bit better position, but it's definitely not over if he wins it. A PA win and an election loss are totally possible pairings.

Most Freepers have had the benefit of evaluating the internals of the polls and understand that they are way off base. Our common (read: conservative) sense tells us that dummy turnout can't possibly end-up being 10% or more than pubbies. Therefore, when the MSM polls show McCain down but not out, we know he will probably win those states regardless of the intent of those polls and the MSM to deflate our hopes and depress the vote against McCain/Palin.

You would do well to take in some of the analysis readily available on FR that explains the sampling methods being used in this election in context with historical data. This election is a dead heat right now which means that McCain has a great chance to repeat Bush's 2004 victory map (plus PA and possibly an upper midwest state as well).

[Chet 99]

You’re over analyzing the situation.

If McCain wins PA, he’s going to win VA, NC, IN, MO, etc.

If McCain loses IN or NC, it will be a nationwide route. There is talk of 50 separate contests, but the states generally move in tandem with the national popular vote. There are exceptions of course, but I don’t think you’ll see that this year with PA.

[Bush Revolution]

I will bet anything that he will not lose NC, my husband is from there. There are too many blue dog Dems, his whole family is an example they are voting McCain. It’s just my thoughts on NC. That’s a big military state.