Posted on 10/24/2008 7:56:05 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo
Earlier this evening FoxNews ran a piece quoting David Pflouffe (read "poof") saying that the Obama camp couldn't figure out why McCain was campaigning in PA. Pfloufe said that in order for McCain to win PA, he would have to win 20% of Democrats, 95% of Republicans, and 60% of Independents.
So I calculated, based on 2004 PA turnout of 41% Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 20% Independents, what kind of edge that would give McCain.
If McCain managed to pull off such a feat, he would win 57%-43%, a 14 pt margin! If McCain wins PA by 14 pts, he'd probably win every other state but Illinois!
So then I decided to find out the DEM-GOP spread necessary to come up with Pflouffe's scenario. In other words, I wanted to see what kind of DEM turnout Pfloufe was expecting in order to have McCain just barely edge out Obama by winning 20% of D's, 95% of R's, and 60% of I's
In order for McCain to actually need that kind of result, Pfloufe must be expecting Dem turnout to be roughly 20 pts higher than GOP turnout in Pennsylvania!
If they actually think that's going to happen on election day, the Obama camp is going to be very disappointed.
The point? Now we see who is feeding these faulty Dem turnout assumptions to the major pollsters
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Obama is so over. On Nov 5 he will be yesterday’s news, a has been, actually, a never was. He will be humilated and so will all his creepy crummy commie cronies.
How do you figure? McCain only gets 73% of Republicans.
Ahem. “(Test from 10/20/2008 till 10/31/2008)”
I worked in Philly for four years recently, among blue-collar workers as well, and they will NOT vote for 0bama.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I think they and the media polls are making assumptions about new voters that won’t turn out to be true. That and McCain closing the gap with his ad push - which is now underway - is our path to victory.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I think he’s saying McCain’s GOP support in that SUSA poll was low as well. McCain will get much more than 73% of GOPers though - that’s in the silly zone.
Hey look, weirder crap has happened :)
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Obama is worried about PA which is why he risked goign to an all-black rally in Philly. Unfortunately the media is so in the tank for him, they made no mention of this of course.
Philadelphia will drive up Obama’s margins by 400k+ the same as Kerry.
The blue-collar areas in eastern PA and around Pittsburg will go about even which is lower than Kerry’s numbers.
The big problem is Philadelphia’s suburbs where they’ve been hit hard by the stock market and mortage crisis. Mac was suppose to run strong here but the financial crisis has hit home hard. I think his mortage plan is aimed at these people and people in suburbs around the nation where he needs a strong showing in order to become president.
I’m wondering how NY will go. They are dems and Hillary supporters, but will the disgruntled dem/loyal Hillary supporters cut into the dem vote enough to unseat obama?
Are you in Lancaster?
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Agreed... BUT... Obama is like a bad character from a horror movie.... he will keep coming back and I don’t wan’t a sequel to this cr@ppy movie...
IF (as we both suspect) he loses the election — we must keep up the pressure and keep the spotlight on the skeletons in his closet... the GOP needs to find someone to run against him for Senate seat and we need to pound him on his lies until he is known for what he is... an unreformed socialist who hates America
Murtha calling us rednecks and racists surely didn't help him or 0 much either.
(Test from 10/20/2008 till 10/31/2008)
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