Why OBAMA will lose PA (Pflouffe gives away faulty turnout assumptions)

Fox News | 10/24/08 | Thane Banquo

[Thane_Banquo]

Earlier this evening FoxNews ran a piece quoting David Pflouffe (read "poof") saying that the Obama camp couldn't figure out why McCain was campaigning in PA. Pfloufe said that in order for McCain to win PA, he would have to win 20% of Democrats, 95% of Republicans, and 60% of Independents.

So I calculated, based on 2004 PA turnout of 41% Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 20% Independents, what kind of edge that would give McCain.

If McCain managed to pull off such a feat, he would win 57%-43%, a 14 pt margin! If McCain wins PA by 14 pts, he'd probably win every other state but Illinois!

So then I decided to find out the DEM-GOP spread necessary to come up with Pflouffe's scenario. In other words, I wanted to see what kind of DEM turnout Pfloufe was expecting in order to have McCain just barely edge out Obama by winning 20% of D's, 95% of R's, and 60% of I's

In order for McCain to actually need that kind of result, Pfloufe must be expecting Dem turnout to be roughly 20 pts higher than GOP turnout in Pennsylvania!

If they actually think that's going to happen on election day, the Obama camp is going to be very disappointed.

The point? Now we see who is feeding these faulty Dem turnout assumptions to the major pollsters

[goldstategop]

The Democrats see him as their Ronald Reagan. Let's hope its really close for that favors our side more than theirs.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Emperor Palpatine]

The frosting on the cake would be if Obama takes Murtha down into the abyss with him.

[calex59]

Doesn’t matter. No way 2006 was even close to 20 pt Dem advantage.

That's correct Thane, in 2006 the dems had a 3 pt advantage.

[Norman Bates]

Well that’s the real danger if Obama wins - not that he’ll ever touch 500 or even 400 EVs. They (media and all) will do everything to turn him into “their” Ronald Reagan. I fear he will get credit for the markets naturally correcting themselves in the coming months. You know how the sheeple are.

[Thickman]

You're forgetting New Mexico. If Obama loses PA but keeps all the other Kerry states + NM, IA, CO and VA he gets exactly 270 votes. That's enough to win. That's not a crazy scenario, as Obama is +7 in New Mexico, +6 in Colorado, +8 in Iowa, +6 in Virginia, and +3 in Nevada. And that's assuming McCain actually pulls off a come-behind in Pennsylvania. Obama could also still win w/o Pa if he knocks off Missouri (most recent Fox-Rasmussen Poll O 49, M 44) or Indiana (Big Ten and Survey USA both have Obama up). And I'm not sure why you're so absolutely confident that McCain has nothing to worry about in NC, OH or FL, even though all three are trending ok-ish over the last 24 hours. Bottom line -- if McCain wins PA, he's in a bit better position, but it's definitely not over if he wins it. A PA win and an election loss are totally possible pairings.

Most Freepers have had the benefit of evaluating the internals of the polls and understand that they are way off base. Our common (read: conservative) sense tells us that dummy turnout can't possibly end-up being 10% or more than pubbies. Therefore, when the MSM polls show McCain down but not out, we know he will probably win those states regardless of the intent of those polls and the MSM to deflate our hopes and depress the vote against McCain/Palin.

You would do well to take in some of the analysis readily available on FR that explains the sampling methods being used in this election in context with historical data. This election is a dead heat right now which means that McCain has a great chance to repeat Bush's 2004 victory map (plus PA and possibly an upper midwest state as well).

[1035rep]

I have lived here all my life, I have never seen such a lack of enthusiasm for the Democrat candidate. In 2000 there were Gore signs everywhere, 2004 Kerry signs everywhere. There is almost nothing here for Obama. I have not spoken to a single Democrat that is voting for Obama. I’m sure its different near the coast but it’s really strange this time around. I have two neighbors that had Kerry signs in 2004 that now have McCain signs in their yards.

[Thickman]

1. The polls weren't wrong about Kerry. 2. What if monkeys fly out of my butt?

They were wrong, including the exit polls that had Kerry's campaign people calling him "Mr. President" before the polls close.

McCain winning the election - $84 million matching federal funds.

Prime media spot at Barry's election night party - $10k

Watching commie libs like Bathtub Boy and Chrissy Mathews melting down on MSNBC when That One becomes Minus One - PRICELESS!

[Intolerant in NJ]

Any feeling for Italian-Americans in Philly and Bishop Martino speaking about abortion. Are Italian-American still a large voting bloc there?...many of them have moved across the river to south Jersey, and every one that I know, including a long-time, well-connected Democrat politico from Camden County and his wife, can't wait to get to the polls to vote for McCain - my guess is that their friends and relatives still living in south Philly and environs feel very much the same.......

[1035rep]

Exactly.

[Emperor Palpatine]

"They could put Joe Stalin on the ballot in NY and CA and he would win."


Other than the snazzy handlebar 'stache, what's the difference between That One and Uncle Joe?

[1035rep]

LOL!!

[comebacknewt]

McCain 49.92
Obama 50.08

Those are tough numbers, but McCain can do it.

His best chance IMHO is to win roughly 92% of GOP voters, 15% of RAT voters, and 48% of Indies. That would give him 50.5% in Pennsylvania and probably the Presidency.

[Thickman]

Of the 4 States mentioned (PA, FL, VA, and OH), the one I worry about most is Ohio. I think the Dems will steal it with the help of ACORN. What say ye?

He'd not only have to make-up Bush's 120,000 advantage from 2004, he'd have to counter the PUMA's who hate his cheating ways and rednecks who cling to the guns and racism. ACORN will have to manufacture 250,000 votes for Barry to have a shot at OH. Not going to happen.

[Alter Kaker]

They were wrong, including the exit polls that had Kerry's campaign people calling him "Mr. President" before the polls close.

The early exit polls were wrong. Early exit polls are not the same thing as telephone polls. Pretending that they are is nuts. The methodology is completely different.

[Windcatcher]

Six months ago I was saying the same thing...the Philly vote will split along racial lines. No one knows better than Philly voters what will happen to the country: they’ve seen it in smaller scale for two decades.

[Thickman]

We don't have President Kerry. The polls said Kerry would lose... and he did. Of the 20 national polls conducted closest to the 2004 election, 17 had Bush ahead, 2 had Kerry ahead, and 1 had a tie. That's pretty good, considering the outcome was Bush 50.7%, Kerry 48.3%.

Those polls were not oversampling dummies by 6 - 14%. Study the internals - you might learn something about how in the tank the MSM and its paid polls are for That One.

[Thickman]

In the 2006 Santorum wipeout, the breakout was 43 (D) 38 (R) 19 (I). If you plug Plouffe's numbers into that turnout model, the results would be: McCain - 56.1 Obama - 43.9 Looks like you are correct. As long as we don't get demolished in turnout, we have a real shot to win it.

Thanks for the numbers. That gives some statistical perspective to what we all think could be the case in PA.

[goldstategop]

The polling samples are unbelievable. Nearly every second person in the country is an Obamabot.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[Alter Kaker]

Those polls were not oversampling dummies by 6 - 14%.

So you think that at some point since 2004 every single polling organization in the United States decided to change its polling technique? Are they supposed to have done this in a cave outside Zurich or something?

[Crimson Elephant]

As Rush said a while back, McCain believes the election is won in the last 72 hours...PARTICULARLY this election.

This election is going to come down to the conservative dems and mush middle going to the polls and thinking “do I trust Obama?”

McCain, IMO, has purposely held back ads..as has the GOP...to save their ammunition for the final week. I predict McCain will actually OUT ad Obama the last 3-5 days by a good bit, and bring some of the hardest stuff at the very end.

If it were me, I would have saved Wright and any other charges for the last weekend. That does 2 things. One it leaves a last impression leading to doubt in voters’ minds. Two it helps prevent the MSM from having a complete meltdown and charging racism for three weeks leading up to election day. The final doubt must be cemented without time for Obama or the MSM to get a counter.

I believe the McCain camp knows this, and is saving the hardest ads and the heavy volume for the VERY end. The MSM won’t have time to come up with a counter narrative that McCain is a hate monger. After the election, who cares?

Also McCain has targeted a two pronged electoral vote strategy. One is to run the table on Bush states minus Iowa and NM. The swings through Colorado and hitting VA hard are about that. I think McCain has Florida, and will win Ohio (ACORN being a wildcard....McCain LEGITIMATELY wins in Ohio..but who knows). Second they have also decided the one Gore/Kerry state they can focus on is PA. That is an alternative route if Obama somehow gets CO or VA.

Murtha and Obama’s blunder was a gift from above IMO. It gives McCain a chance. The ad buy for the last week is why they gave up on Michigan IMO. I think they will absolutely go nuclear on Obama in PA, VA, OHIO, CO and Missouri with a dash of FL. Last 5-7 days. By picking Pennsylvania over Michigan and other states they will mulitply their last week ad buys and launch a targeted air raid on the 2 potential paths.