Posted on 10/24/2008 7:56:05 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo
Earlier this evening FoxNews ran a piece quoting David Pflouffe (read "poof") saying that the Obama camp couldn't figure out why McCain was campaigning in PA. Pfloufe said that in order for McCain to win PA, he would have to win 20% of Democrats, 95% of Republicans, and 60% of Independents.
So I calculated, based on 2004 PA turnout of 41% Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 20% Independents, what kind of edge that would give McCain.
If McCain managed to pull off such a feat, he would win 57%-43%, a 14 pt margin! If McCain wins PA by 14 pts, he'd probably win every other state but Illinois!
So then I decided to find out the DEM-GOP spread necessary to come up with Pflouffe's scenario. In other words, I wanted to see what kind of DEM turnout Pfloufe was expecting in order to have McCain just barely edge out Obama by winning 20% of D's, 95% of R's, and 60% of I's
In order for McCain to actually need that kind of result, Pfloufe must be expecting Dem turnout to be roughly 20 pts higher than GOP turnout in Pennsylvania!
If they actually think that's going to happen on election day, the Obama camp is going to be very disappointed.
The point? Now we see who is feeding these faulty Dem turnout assumptions to the major pollsters
Don’t forget; Union workers in the Midwest went for Reagan big-time.
Hard as it is to believe they weren’t in the tank like this.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
In addition to CNN-Time:
Rassmussen has Virgina +10 Obama,
Survey USA has Virginia +6 Obama.
M-D is a good pollster, but I want more data points. The polling is too far over the map for me to be able to dismiss one or another group as being "wrong."
Seriously, run the numbers as if it’s 2000. That’s what I have been doing, on the theory that 2004, Bush had a national security advantage. It was the first Pres. election after 2001, and 9/11 was still fresh in everyone’s minds. Today it’s completely forgotten and the country is as divided as in the Bush / Gore years.
Supposedly, if we get PA, we get VA? But we could get VA w/o getting PA. SO of course I am praying we do get PA.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I read that McCain/Palin seemed to have @ 1% over Obama in CO’s early voting ... does that mean they’ve opened and counted the ballots or that 1% more folks registered R have voted than have folks registered D ?
I don’t like the ‘early warning system’ .. it’ll let them know how many more voters to get out, or which precincts to hold, till they achieve the winning numbers needed, like they did in SD in 2002.
The illegal registrations aren’t about getting those voters into the polls. It’s about creating a large pool of extra registered voters that Democratic election officials can use to cover their election fraud. This works best in the poor urban areas where the GOP is hard to find and voters don’t usually bother to vote. For example, Acorn registers an extra 500 fake voters in a precinct of 3,000 real voters. The local Dems then know that they can safely add 500 votes for Obama even before counting how many of the 3,000 real voters showed up. It’s why these precincts take so long to report. They’re busy entering more votes.
I’m not saying McCain will win California....but no way Obama wins 55% of the vote.
I don’t believe the Rasmussen. There’s not that much of a spread.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
The two latest VA polls had the race at 1-2 points down.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I’m shocked that here in Pittsburgh you see McCain signs outnumbering Obama signs three and four to one in places you’d never expect....like latte-lapping and liberal-infested Mt Lebanon.
About the only places I see a lot of signs for That One are in the Hill District and parts of the North Side that are heavily Black.
I stay out of Homewood and Point Breeze, so I don’t know if the O signs are prevalent there.
But I live on Mt Washington, and there’s more Mac signs here than Obama ones.
This is strange for the usually Blue ‘Burgh
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
Obama will never get anywhere close to Reagan if it were a landslide.
Or as my Grandma used to say, figures never lie, but liars figure.
;-)
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
A 1-2 race two days ago. Like I said they are pushing the ads now. We will win VA in the end.
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