Margin in Philly less than 250k?
Philly proper? Well in ‘04 it went 4 to 1 Kerry (81%)
542,205 to 130,000(19%)
I’d say its going to be 3 to 1 or 3.5 to 1 this time around.
175k ish to 500kish to 200k to 475k ish range.
Make no mistake Fauxbama is going to still win Philly by a wide margin, but it won’t be as large as 04 for the D, and the margin D vote across the rest of the state will be down as well, so that lead won’t hold.
If you spread the 04 vote out across all counties, all McCain needs is to flip 2000 votes per county than Bush got, and he wins.
And
Pittsburgh’s home county of Allegheny went
Kerry 368,912 57%
Bush 271,925 42%
in 04, and I can tell you without quesiton Fauxbama will not carry allegheny county by 93,000 votes either.