Posted on 10/23/2008 7:40:57 PM PDT by bruinbirdman
“Who on this Board cannot remember the hundreds of postings by ExTexan warning of a housing collapse? I got tired of them....and the arguements....and the bragging about how much the house had appreciated.”
I remember them, and agreed with them. Unfortunately, I did not have the foresight (although I’m hardly alone in this) to see what the implications of the housing bubble crash would be for the financial sector and, ultimately, the global economy. If I had I would have pulled all my retirement investments out of largely equity-based funds this summer and parked them all in safe investments. Having missed that, at this point I just can’t see joining the rush to the door with the rest of the herd to liquidate all my equity holdings. In fact, the funds I’m in are auto-balancing, meaning they’ll be piling more money into equities now as their values drop. I hope that in the longer term (I’ve still got 20 years at least until retiring) that this strategy will pay off. If not, well I guess I can always work until I die, or move into a cardboard box and live on old pizza crusts and cat food. ;)
if you have 20 years to retirement and a secure job (government sector is the best right now) and you are still on the auto-purchase 401k plan or something similar and it goes to Dow or S&P Index funds you will be fine. This will take 3 to 5 years to play out. The hard part will be to remain confident in your choices as the media and events will be negative and bitter.
My job’s not government-sector secure, but I have relatively few expenses and a good amount of liquid cash available outside my retirement savings to carry me through for a while, if necessary. I work for a tech company, but one that is well diversified and sells products that should continue to do quite well even in a recession - but you never know what drooping earnings figures will prompt the upper management into doing - like large numbers of layoffs. One thing for sure, dipping into my retirement savings would only be an absolute last resort. I’ll take a job delivering pizza or slinging fries at McDonalds to get through the tough times if I have to.
Thanks for your kind words. Much appreciated. Will frmail you privately.
I would beg to differ on that. I've admitted I was wrong in the past. However, being able to admit it is a demonstration of your character and integrity. Not being able to admit it says something as well.
Apologies to ex-Texan or Hydroshock or Travis McGee or any others? Don’t hold your breath. At least we no longer hear people calling them Liberal doom-and-gloomers talking down the economy to get Obama elected and telling them to leave and go post on DU.
People almost never listen to the far seer types (ESPECIALLY when they have bad news). Why do you think they call us the extreme right wing when we can see patterns and trends farther out than dems?
Wow! great points.
In case you hadn't noticed, the global economy was hit by a huge, unexpected macroeconomic event. Back in July, no one was forecasting a global recession. That's why will prices were high then. Demand was growing, and there were no indications that it was going to stop growing. But then Lehman Brothers collapsed, credit markets froze up, and a global recession became imminent.
That doesn't mean oil was in a bubble before. By all accounts, forecasts of global demand growth were reasonable at the time given the information that was available. Or are you telling me you had correctly forecast the current financial crisis in July?
“Few ever admit they are wrong here. Apologize? You have to be kidding. Hockey moms will be cheering their kids on in Hades before that happens.”
Well, I have to admit something I was wrong about but I’ve never been more happy to be wrong. I’ve said all along that I hope I am wrong. My pessimism regarding the long term peace in Iraq was wrong. I had no doubt that a surge would bring about short term stability in the same way that putting a bunch of cops on a block in a gang infested neighborhood would result in less violence until the cops are removed.
My pessimism stemmed from a couple different things. One, I had no faith in a people and culture that believes so strongly in an ideology that rivals nazism for one of the most hateful ideologies ever, that they are willing to send their kids out to die for it. Second, I am very much against the philosophy of nation building. I believe we can force a regime REMOVAl in another country, but not regime CHANGE because I believe only the people from that country can bring about lasting regime change. I also believe in projecting our military power punitively only, not through nation building because no country has ever benefited from prolonged war. I think this sets a precedent that might be a detriment to us in the future. Already, officer leadership programs in the military are focusing on nation building strategies for the future as opposed to conventional war strategies.
That all said, I have been wrong regarding this issue because Iraq is having sustained peace even after our troops have handed over entire provinces. I sure hope this continues because it’s great for our military morale and for peace in the region. It also sends a huge blow to terrorists networks. I’ve never been so happy to be wrong and I have more respect for McCain’s leadership qualities as a result.
“People almost never listen to the far seer types (ESPECIALLY when they have bad news).”
To be sure, though, there are a lot of doom and gloom types around, many of whom often prove to be wrong. Like the ones who predicted oil would go to $250/bbl based only on supply and demand, or that it would never drop below $100 again. Still, in my opinion, anyone with a brain could see that the housing market, just like tech stocks back in ‘98-’00, was a bubble just waiting to burst.
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