Look, at this point, no one know what will happen, but I will say that this is very reminiscent of 2004. I remember hearing that early voting was “in the bag” for Kerry and young folks were voting in droves for him.
I believe that African Americans will deliver another 2-3 million votes for Obama this time around (there can’t statistically be much more than that according to census data and past voting records), but the media ignores the “anti-Obama” voters. They include out and out racist democratic voters who oppose him because he is black, heartland conservatives who oppose him on his social views and fear his potential secular/muslim leanings and economic conservatives who oppose him on his fiscal policies.
Absolutely right. These guys aren’t missing a psyops trick, I’ll give ‘em that.
I see much more enthusiasm where I live for McCain/Palin than I did for Bush in 2004. I could drive 2 miles in each direction and count, I conservatively estimate, 25 McCain yard signs, and I think ONE Obama sign.
There’s an enthusiasm gap that isn’t being discussed. Those who dislike Obamunist - OK, I’ll say hate because I hate him - ARE going to turn out in big numbers.
I’ll predict flatly a large popular vote win for McCain. Electoral will be much closer, but in places like Texas McCain is going to win with between 62 and 65% of the vote.
Electorally, it’s going to come down to Pennsylvania and Ohio. And McCain looks very promising in both right now.
Hank