If those poll numbers are good, I think McCain/Palin have both those states in the bag. In 2004, both those states were “toss-ups” in the polls and Bush won VA by 9 and FL by 5.
The Florida Division of Elections says Republicans now have 4,064,301 registered voters and Democrats have 4,722,076. That gives the Democrats more than 658,000 registered voters than Republicans this year.
Florida now has nearly 1 million more voters than four years ago. The total, including people not registered with any party, is now 11,247,634 registered voters up from 10,301,290 in 2004. There are approximately 2,461,257 Independent voters in Florida.
But how many of those new Democrats were registered by ACORN or one of its affiliates. It is a certainty that the the 172,000 newly registered Republicans are real voters and that nearly all will vote.
So if, as they did in Ohio in 2004, ACORN registered 250,000 fake Democrats and none of them voted, what is or was the purpose? Think about it a second. Say they planned to vote those 250 thousand fake names. It would be hard for one person to vote more than 50 fake names in a day. So that would take 5,000 people organized to vote 250 thousand fake names. Imagine trying to put together an illegal operation that required 5,000 people to each commit crimes that could add up to decades in prison each. What would you have to pay people who would take that risk. And how smart would they have to be to pull off the impersonation.
You ask what about the inner city precincts in Miami where Republicans fear to tread. Why not just steal them the old fashioned way by having the five precinct workers steal them. But Miami black districts have only a fraction of the 451,000 new voters.
But what about the polls if 70 percent of the Democrats are going to vote. Then 70 percent of 4,722,076 registered Democrats is 3,305,453. If 70 percent of Republicans are going to vote then 70 percent of 4,064,301 is 2,845010. If the number of independents voting is 70 percent then 70 percent of 2,461,257 is 1,722,870. Add them up and we will have 3,305,453 Democrats plus 2,845,010 Republicans and 1,722 870 independents for a total of 7,873,333 Florida voters.
And that means 41.9 percent of the voters will be Democrats. So that is where the pollsters are getting that number that 41 to 43 percent of voters will be Democrats. And that is how they give Obama a big lead in the polls. Look at all the positive media stuff about Obama being a sure thing, it comes from flaws in turn out created by ACORN and its affiliates.
But what if it is like Ohio in 2004 and they don't vote those fake voters. It would take 15,000 people to vote all those Florida fake names. I don't think they will try to risk it. Out of the thousands of people it would take to do this, some of them would be willing to squeal to keep from going to prison.
So it looks like we now know the origin of the 38, 39, 41 and 43 percent turn out of Democrats used in the polls. Before Acorn started adding voter names this year Democrat turn out was estimated to be in the mid 30s but as more and more names were registered by ACORN the apparent Democrat turn out went up, up, and up. In Florida the Republican turn out looks like 36 percent and the independents are 22 percent of turn out.
But what if the turn out is actually 36,36, 28... then Obama is hurting, and ACORNS attempt to stampede voters will not have worked. It appears to me that the more they fool the pollsters and make Obama look like a big winner the more white working class Democrats, working or retired, say they will vote for McCain.
What no one in the media is mentioning is the reason white working class democrats say they are voting for McCain. It is affirmative action. Few members of white working class have in the last 45 years, have not been effected by Affirmative action. They have worked in a plant only to see a more qualified white hourly worker get passed over for a foreman's job only to see it go to a black worker. Then they have had to live with the black foreman giving the good jobs to his fellow blacks, and the bad jobs to whites.
This summer I canvased a large number of white working class Democrats. When I asked about the war in Iraq or the Economy, they said recessions always end and wars always end, but the results of affirmative action go on forever.
I don't believe the polls that say the 23 percent of Democrats who are white and hourly workers, are going to vote for Obama on election day. Many of them have been pressured by their unions to do so. It seems to me that most of those will not truthfully tell anyone who has their phone number how they are going to vote. Unions can punish workers who don't do as they are told. But in the secrecy of the voting booth I think they will vote their fears. And that means voting for John McCain.
I think the more they push Obama as the winner the bigger the negative Obama turn out will be.