VIRGINIA, 3 DAYS TO GO: KERRY TOO CLOSE TO BUSH FOR GOP'S COMFORT

SurveyUSA ^ | 10-30-04

[Chet 99]

13 ELECTORAL VOTES AT STAKE, 72 HOURS TO GO ... BUSH 51%, KERRY 47%

IN AN ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT IN VA TODAY, 3 DAYS TO THE VOTE, GEORGE W BUSH DEFEATS JOHN KERRY 51% TO 47%, ACCORDING TO SURVEYUSA POLL OF 606 LIKELY VOTERS 10/27-10/29.

IN 5 TRACKING POLLS SINCE JULY, BUSH HAS LED BY 4 PTS 3 TIMES, LED BY 5 PTS ONCE, & ONLY LED BY 11 ONCE, AT PEAK OF SWIFT-BOAT CONTROVERSY. IN 2000, BUSH WON VA BY 8. KERRY LEADS BY 10 PTS IN NE VA, LEADS BY 2 IN SE VA. BUSH LEADS BY 9 IN CENTRAL VA, LEADS BY 21 IN THE SHENANDOAH. KERRY UP 19 IN URBAN VA, BUSH UP 10 IN SUBURBAN VA. BUSH UP 20 AMONG WHITES, KERRY UP 58 AMONG BLACKS. BUSH HOLDS 94% OF GOP BASE. KERRY HOLDS 93% OF DEMOCRAT BASE. INDEPENDENTS BREAK FOR KERRY 51% TO 45%.

[CatOwner]

These posts would be all well and good if McCain was on the plus side of most national and swing state polls. But he’s not. All this does is provide a reminder that Bush was in much better shape against Kerry than McCain is against Obama.

[Rudder]

BUSH 51%, KERRY 47%

I bet Bush wins.

[GnL]

Yeah. If this information is designed to make me feel better, it ain’t working.

[Chet 99]

Bush won VA by 8. If the polls’ MOE is 4%, without even a Bradley Effect being in play, what do you think the error rate could be this year?

[Thickman]

These posts would be all well and good if McCain was on the plus side of most national and swing state polls. But he’s not. All this does is provide a reminder that Bush was in much better shape against Kerry than McCain is against Obama.

You are missing the point. All of those polls were off in favor of Kerry. Also, those polls did not have big spreads in dummie sampling like the ones being conducted this year.

In comparing the polling methods to 2004 (even accounting for some increase in dummie turnout) it is possible to see a different picture than the pollsters are presenting. It would seem that McCain is even or ahead in enough Bush states to win the EC. That is important to note.

[CatOwner]

The Kerry campaign was not as effective as the Obama campaign. And the McCain campaign is less effective than the Bush campaign was in 2004. I don’t believe the double-digit leads in the national polls, but I do think that Obama has a good shot at 50% in the popular vote. And I do think that McCain has way fewer options in the Electoral College than does Obama.

[CatOwner]

You are missing the point. All of those polls were off in favor of Kerry. Also, those polls did not have big spreads in dummie sampling like the ones being conducted this year.

I can give you a link to RCP's list of LV polls from 2004, and it was clear than Bush was at least even if not ahead for most of September and October 2004. I do not get a sense that McCain is in as good a position as Bush was in 2004.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

I don’t know how you can get a sense of it with the media on an all-out jihad and pollsters with insane weighting.

[Frantzie]

I disagree. One Democrat has gotten over 50.3% since what FDR? It was LBJ. Many Hillary Dems do not like Obama. Obama cheated in primray caucuses states and he got trounced in FL, OH and PA by Hillary to name just a few.

Obama is probably going to lose FL, OH and PA just for starters. If he loses all of those states there is no way home.

I also do not believe Obama will win CO.

Volunteer and donate. This is how we win elections.

[Chet 99]

Are you obtuse, or are you just trying to depress people on purpose?

The point is not that McCain is doing as well as Bush did in ‘04. Of course he isn’t... but Bush won by 3 million votes and had huge landslide wins in a number of red states. Polls caught on that he’d win a number of state races, but in many cases, they severely underestimated his victory margins (for instance, NC).

If the state poll error rate follows in 2008, McCain can win the electoral college, he just won’t be winning the states by as large of margins as Bush did.

[CatOwner]

And we don't know what the effect will be on voters who hear about these one-sided polls. Most voters aren't as aware of the polling methods like most Freepers are.

So, to try and equate this year's polling results with 2004 is a stretch at best. Say what you want about Obama (and I pray he is not elected POTUS), but he's a better candidate than Kerry, has a better campaign team (thug-based), and has his supporters far more ramped up than Kerry did.

[CatOwner]

Don’t forget Carter in 1976, who just squeaked past 50%. And if someone like Perot had run in 2004 lie he did in 1992 and 1996, I guarantee you that Bush would not have gotten 50% in 2004. Without Perot, Clinton likely gets 50% in 1992 and certainly in 1996.

[TonyInOhio]

These posts would be all well and good if McCain was on the plus side of most national and swing state polls. But he’s not. All this does is provide a reminder that Bush was in much better shape against Kerry than McCain is against Obama.

I just have to ask: you're clearly indicating that you believe Obama will win. Why do you even bother to post on these threads? Are you trying to convince everyone else that McCain will lose, too? I guess I'm missing the point.

I believe, honestly, that McCain can still win. I believe the race is close, and I believe that the pollsters are sampling inaccurately. Chet's posts from 2000 and 2004 show that the pollsters were wrong in many respects in both of those years. It's entirely possible that Obama wins, perhaps big. But it's also possible that McCain wins, and the information we're being presented does not reflect reality.

So, why be a thread crapper?

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Yes, I have no idea either. However, Sarah’s huge crowds and ratings on TV might give an indication of something under the surface.

I’ve been trying to compare turnout numbers to 2006, rather than 2004. The base was WAY more demoralized in 2006 than it is now. I don’t think Obama is a better candidate. He has huge demographic holes in his support and a huge problems with guns. Kerry had a similar issue, but he at least TRIED (Can I get me a huntin’ license?). Obama hasn’t done a damn thing.

I’ve also gotten some internal numbers, some of them from a very reliable source, some where we’re not 100% sure, that support the idea that Obama is nowhere near where they’re trying to tell us he is.

[CatOwner]

I am trying to find a reason to be positive, but it sure is hard these days. Won’t stop me from voting for McCain-Palin, although it won’t help in my state of CA.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Rendell said the McCain campaign is clearly making a push to win Pennsylvania, given the recent visits by the Arizona senator, his wife and his running mate. As a result, he wants Obama to appear in western Pennsylvania, Harrisburg and one more “large rally” in Philadelphia. Democrats generally worry that the race is significantly closer than what recent polls have suggested. According to Rendell, there is also worry among Democrats the McCain campaign has successfully raised the enthusiasm level among Republicans in the state.

If that's public, it's worse than they're making it sound. I've heard that McCain's internals say he's leading PA. And more reliable information from states with similar demographics would support that.

[johncocktoasten]

CatOwner,

As a fellow owner and lover of cats, I regret to inform you that you a victim of psycological warfare.

You see, this template was designed and tested in 2006. After years of being smoked by Bush and his evil professor Rove in elections where “history runs against the incumbent party” the media and its minions in the RAT party decided they needed a different tack.

Here was the plan:

1. Take small Republican failures and make them front page news every day for two months. (Foley and Macaca)

2. Recruit a bunch of Dem house candidates to run as CONSERVATIVES (Heath Shuler comes to mind)

3. Spend every day of the election cycle telling the public, thru DBM sources that the election was over and that it was speaker Pelosi and Leader dingy.

The plan worked. Democrats consistently knocked off Pubbies by tight margins in vulnerable districts.

Voter ID with this onslaught was 39 D 36 R 25 I.

Fast forward to 2008. The same psycological warfare is being used against you. FR has tried diligently to innoculate your mind against the BS. We have tried to encourage you to go to the numbers, examine anecdotally what you know to be true in your own area of the country.

CatOwner, your fellow FReepers need you to fight back against the psy-ops tactics of the DBM and DEMS. Obi Wan and others have told us that Chuckie Schumer and Bawney Fwank are BANKING on this strategery to work again.

Ask yourself, does the inevitable 15% MOV winner need to attack a plumber who asks a question?

Ask yourself, how does a nominee for VP, that “every one hates and believes is not qualified” produce debate ratings higher than any PRESIDENTIAL debate in the last 16 years. Additionally, SNL ratings highest in 14 years.

Ask yourself, do people I know who support Bush four years ago now support Obama? (exclude Colin Powell)

Ask yourself, do I know people who supported Kerry who won’t vote Obama?

Ask yourself, what business owner in their right mind would vote Obama?

Ask yourself, would a white man or woman with Obama’s resume and speaking ability ever come close to winning a major party presidential nomination?

After you answer that last question, ask yourself if you believe the majority of this country will pull the lever for Obama after they ask and answer that question for themselves?

[perfect_rovian_storm]

Reasons to be positive:

1) Watch where McCain’s camp are campaigning. They’re doing a lot of PA, some of the Bush states, WI, NH, and ME(!).

2) Watch how the dems are behaving. Murtha? Yep, that’s total confidence. Rendell? Yep, again...

3) Look at McPalin’s crowds in these states that they’re supposedly doing so badly in.

[HerrBlucher]

I think Mac will win PA, Kerry only got it by 2.5% and there are a LOT of dems that voted for kerry that will NOT vote from OStalin. Also, aside from some of the elitist idiot pubbies, there are no pubbies that will vote for OStalin. PA is in the bag and OStalin is going to sent home packing along with his commie moonbat toadies.