Everyone is assuming Obama’s massive turnout operation having a major impact. Certainly the black vote will be increased, if nothing else. What we don’t know is whether the Bradley effect will cost Obama 1 point or 5 points. We also don’t know how much of an effect Palin will have on Republican turnout. Keep in mind, Kerry thought he’d win on turnout in 2004 and he did actually get 8 million more votes than Gore in 2000. The problem was that Bush turned out 11.5 million more votes than in 2000. Palin’s rallies seem to be stoking the base much like Bush did in 2004. McCain’s campaign claims to have made more phone contacts than were made at a similar point in 2004 by the vaunted Bush/Rove machine. The fact that McCain and the RNC have saved a wad of cash for the stretch run could also be a huge variable. There is still plenty of time to drive up Obama’s negatives with ads and phone calls.
IMO the increaese in the black vote will be offset by the PUMA voters.
Nah, more.