Posted on 10/17/2008 11:09:09 AM PDT by HK Ball
... things are looking better ... check the long term poll results and recent Gallup line graphs ...
(updates 2/3 times per week until the election)
National polls mean absolutely nothing. Of course Kos and CBS are absurdly wide, but all that matters is FL, VA, and OH.
And CO and PA!
montage,
... you’re right, but the degree of distortion remains essentially constant, you can still see trends within those distortions ...
Wow! Look at the McCain bump after Debate 3 and Joe the Plumber.
If these were stock charts, my analysis would be that an emotional capitulation happened last week where the collective consciousness of the electorate accepted the very real possibility of an Obama presidency. This was an emotional hurdle that was tough for a large group to get over. Incidentally, do you see how it coincided with the worst week in Wall Street history? Wall Street is not pricing as a reflection of what happened in the Bush presidency as Senator Obama would like to have you believe. Wall Street was pricing last week for the very real possibility of an Obama presidency and it scared the hell out of them. Wall Street prices on future events not past.
That being said, when the dust settled...the electorate said, “Well, what have we bought into? We know McCain is a feisty curmudgeon but he is our curmudgeon. What do we really know about this other guy?” With that, people started looking into who Obama really is and they found a whole lot of what they learned to be quite disturbing. Enter Joe the Plumber. Joe became an allegory for “US” the great unwashed out there.
When people saw Joe confront Obama with his anger about being penalized for trying to get ahead, only to have Obama be so cavalier in his answer, “Let's spread YOUR wealth around...” it was anathema for Americans raised on the notion that if you work hard you will be rewarded in this country. If anything, that notion is this nation's GOLDEN RULE.
By the beginning of the week, the whispers in certain dark corners that Obama was a socialist in sheep's clothing, essentially saying anything he could to dupe the people into electing him, became real. Obama's darkest secret has now been dragged out into the sunlight (along with Ayers, ACORN and Frank Davis). Joe the Plumber said it. John McCain sreinforced it and the whole nation heard about it in the third debate. All at once, the sleeping masses woke up and said, “Hey wait a minute. There are some things I don't want changed in the United States and the cornerstone of those is the notion that if you work hard you deserve to be rewarded, not robbed at gunpoint to reward the sit at home and watch tv crowd.”
So here we are. We have not yet seen the full impact of all the small time bombs that McCain left on the table in the third debate. Look for a deterioration of Obama’s solid support and an increase or maintaining of all of those undecideds over the next two and a half weeks. In the end, these will break for McCain. The main issue has been framed. 1. Is out country going to remain land of the free and home of the brave or is it going to become a new Leninist society with no incentive to try harder and more incentive for folks to simply stop trying and get on the dole?
When that curtain closes on election day, individual Americans may want to be viewed by the world as both popular and progressive but in the end, they don't want to be individually responsible for selling out the nation their fathers and grandfathers shed blood to preserve. I believe that in the end, enough individual Americans will say in the darkness of the polling booth, “Barack, you seem like a nice enough fellow but I can't be the one to undo what so many Americans have fought to preserve. You are gonna have to get this done without me.”
Like a tech stock in this market, given a choice, Americans will choose a boring old treasury bond because at least they know what they are getting. So too, in the end, the undecideds will choose John McCain because while Barack Obama, the hot new tech stock is sexy and could go to the moon, in these volatile times, it is better to be safe than sorry. Watch and see...
The most reliable poll (Rassmusen Reports) is trending for McCain as well.
What's your plan B, if Americans decide that they want a Leninist's workers' paradise?
In that case, and being retired, beer and popcorn.
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