Posted on 10/15/2008 9:29:41 AM PDT by Berlin_Freeper
For supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama it is a nightmare scenario -- his apparent lead in the battle for the White House suddenly evaporates on Election Day. The cause? Race.
As Republican rival John McCain celebrates victory, it emerges that a small but decisive percentage of white voters who had declared to opinion pollsters they supported Obama actually chose differently in the privacy of the ballot booth.
With opinion surveys making Obama the favorite over McCain less than three weeks before the November 4 election, attention has turned to the question of how many white Americans might be lying to pollsters about their willingness to vote for a black president.
The phenomenon is known as the "Bradley effect," after Tom Bradley, an African American who narrowly lost the 1982 California governor's election despite leading in polls.
His defeat surprised observers who concluded many white voters had not been honest about their intentions. Ever since, pollsters have tried to factor in the Bradley effect in elections featuring black candidates.
Those concerns weighed heavily on John Estep as he canvassed for Obama last week in the mainly white town of St. Bernard, Ohio, where he was once mayor.
"They will say in a poll, or say on the porch, 'I'll vote for Obama.' But I question how many will stick with a person of color when they pull that (voting booth) curtain," said Estep.
(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...
Wow, you are a silver lining kinda guy!
And yes, as it draws near, the “may” turns more into “going to”.
And yes, Barack earlier in his campaign told us all that Hussein was his middle name and that he was fine with it. That of course was before he decided it would be to his benefit if when we mentioned his middle name, he could then call us all racists and bigots.
I never thought that I would say this but, he and his ENTIRE group of radical compatriots have a plan for us and it is not a good one. Just remember Rev Wright. He is ONLY ONE of Barack Hussein Obama's mentors (the most vocal), Hussein is a very willing puppet.
I will say that “yes...maybe...” because there have been no studies, we do not know what precincts that the Wilder Effect will happen, it makes no difference if a region is heavily Republican, and people lie to pollsters, the Wilder Effect requires:
1. A population likely to fib to pollsters.
2. In a precinct that matters ie a typically Democrat one that could flip due to the Wilder Effect.
No one knows, granted it could keep the overall vote totals down for Obama, but unless it is in a District that matters, it won’t matter on a Battleground State usage.
We’d better HOPE this country is more racist than we think.
If racism is what saves us from an Islamic president, it’ll do.
I’d be willing to blindly choose a name from a list of BLACK
CONSERVATIVES to be president. It’s not his color that would make him an ‘Obamination’ as president- it’s his background
and ideaology. He’a a Marxist, Socialist MUSLIM, IMO, and a
nothing short of his defacing the Koran on camera will make me think otherwise.
The world considers his Muslim and will see him as a Muslim
President. Perception is reality- and what if he gets in
office and drops the ‘Christian’ facade to ‘convert’ to Islam? Anyone think of that?
No stain of Islam in the White House- no, none. I wouldn’t even let Muslims work in or visit it! We’d damn well better
hope for good old-fashioned racism in November- ANYTHING that saves us from an Obamanation is good in my book.
The analysts also note that few people who are turned off by a black candidate’s race would likely vote Democrat anyway.
WOW...
They are seriously priming the pump for riots to break out when their candidate loses.
____________________________________
Looks to me like civil war is brewing no matter who wins.
I’ve been around awhile and I’ve never seen the extreme, rabid, frothing of the mouth bashing that is going on now between not only partisan rivals but between friends, family and neighbors. My own sister who is liberal is now very cool to me when we get together. I have two black friends of 30 years who kept sending me Obama propaganda and emails bashing McCain, Bush and the GOP. The last one called all who don’t vote for Obama racists. I’ve been quiet and respectful until that email. I finally had to tell them that I already voted for McCain by mail in ballot and that it was too late to get it back. I apologized to them for my racist behavior and hoped they would understand.
These media polls that have Obama ahead by double digits are nothing more than racial intimidation. What they’re trying to tell people is “with a lead as big as this, Obama better win, or there’s gonna be hell to pay, so vote Obama or stay home, if you know what’s good for you”.
% of Whites voting for the socialist? 40?
% of Blacks voting for McCain? 99?
Who are the racists?
When rioters tears big cities apart, white conservatives living outside the cities will be blamed.
Go figure.
It should bring him down. Why should Americans elect a racist like Obama?
Since the "poor and minorities are hardest hit" by everything that goes wrong, choosing the best possible candidate for president is the non-racist choice. The only reason I can find for voting Obama is racism: "He's not qualified, but at least he's black." Unfortunately, the public discourse has been so damaged by political correctness that far too many Americans are afraid to say they're not voting for the black candidate, even when their reasons have nothing to do with racism. The result: the "Bradley Effect", a phenomenon that I pray will soon be renamed the "Obama Effect". Voters don't decide to vote against a candidate when they walk into the voting booth and suddenly realize he's black. They decide early on to vote against a less qualified candidate without regard to race, but they are reluctant to mention their choice to strangers because they don't want to deal with the unjustified accusations of racism.
“Face it folks, if Obama loses it will ONLY be because hes black.
Just accept and prepare now to defend your family and property.
I may keep my children home from school for a few days after the election. My middle schoolers have already had black students talking about Whitey needs killin when another student expressed support for McCain. I was appalled until I talked to several other students who were hearing the same stuff.
This will make everyone insane. Frightening.”
_________________________________
I have concluded that this is why McCain has decided not to push the Rev Wright issue. Because he is going to have to appeal to the rioters to stop. To try to bring the country back together. Therefore he must steer clear of the Wright connection.
my 17 yo son plays travel hockey.... i just LMAO at your tagline!!
Barrack 0bama from “Dreams of my Father”
Kind of early to be setting up excuses, unless their internals are showing something the mainstream polls are not.
No, it’s their excuse for ignoring any complaints by conservatives after Obama wins the election. I heard some Democrat (maybe Wolfson) on O’Reilly saying that Republicans need to tone it down because the anger might prevent a President Obama from accomplishing what needs to be done, that the anger would carry over after the election.
I lie to political pollsters as a matter of principle. They should just wait for the results on election day like everyone else.
Why is anyone surprised by Obama’s association with racists like the ‘Reverent’ and known terrorists?
That’s what Muslims DO. It’s what they are.
Judge him by the company he keeps, not the words he mouths.
Muslims LIE. They live a lie if it suits their purposes- just like the 9-11 terrorists did.
If God is not with us this November, and Obama becomes POTUS, look for him to quickly return to his ‘cultural roots’ and ‘convert’ to his father’s religion.
What are we prepared to do then?
David Gergen thinks it will knock off 6%. Carville went off and hinted to riots.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.