Posted on 10/14/2008 5:32:35 PM PDT by seanrobins
This new CBS News/New York Times poll, which is being touted with a 14-POINT LEAD for Obama, up from THIREE POINTS in the same poll a week ago . . . IS A FRAUD!
A peek into the "internals" of the Poll (that is - where the numbers come from) shows this fraud:
Total Respondents 1070
UNWEIGHTED WEIGHTED
Registered Voters 972 902
Democrats 371 338
Republicans 295 263
Independents 306 301
*Effective Likely Voters 699
*Every registered voter is included in the likely voter model, and is assigned a probability of voting, which is used to calculate the likely voter results. The sum of these probabilities is the effective number of likely voters.
- - - - -
So... according to the data CBS/NYT is using, not only have they heavily oversampled Democrats over Republicans, but they had hideously oversampled Independants.
PLUS... they have defined ALL registered voters and being LIKELY voters, which any reputable pollster will tell you is nonesense.
...
Here is the spin CBS/NYT is giving their "poll":
- - - - - - - - - -
THE RACE FOR PRESIDENT: BEFORE THE FINAL DEBATE
October 10-13, 2008
. . .
Heading into the final debate, the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden has widened its lead over the Republicans, John McCain and Sarah Palin. 53% of likely voters support Obama/Biden while 39% support McCain/Palin. Prior to last week’s Town Hall debate, the Democrats held a 3-point edge among likely voters.
Independents have swung back and forth between the two candidates for the last month, but Obama has opened up a significant lead with this key group. . . .
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
I honestly don't believe that there have been any "undecideds" since the national party conventions. People have long since made up their minds and the only real poll that matters will take place 3 weeks from today.
Regarding your question “can someone tell me why I should care one iota about polls”
It is an age old and proven ploy to discourage people who would otherwise vote for the other candidate. The impact, to those who believe it, is to either stay home on voting day or be one of those who want to be a winner and vote for the reported “obvious” winner. Too many people believe what they read and hear; not everyone but too many.
The pollsters claim it is because there has been an actual spike in Dem registrations this election season.
That is likely due to ACORN.
Another freeper wondered if it didn’t also reflect the result of GOPers crossing over as part of Operation Chaos. Which would be really a funny conclusion to the venture.
“None of the other polls show that big of a swing to the ZerO since the debate. C-BS indeed.”
Battleground shows the same swing as the CBS poll. They had Obama up 3 points on Oct. 8 and now have him up 13.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_101408_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html
I am surprised they shot their wad so early with this fake pos. So part of their plan that NBC Nightly News reported it leading their election coverage.
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