[dirknowitzki]

Can you post those 2004 PA turnout results by percentage.

That is important because most of the recent PA polls show that 50% of respondents are Democrats and only 38-40% are Republicans. That is showing a 12 point difference.

[kesg]

I ultimately don't think Obama comes within 5 points of McCain in FL, NC or VA.

In 2004: D41, R39, I20. Kerry beat Bush by 2 points in PA. PA was two points more Democratic than the national average, which was R37, D37, and I26.

For extra credit, in 2000 Gore defeated Bush by 4 points in PA. The 2000 Party ID numbers for PA are unavailable, but nationally the Dems had a 4 point turnout advantage in 2000.

I trust you can judge for yourself whether that 12 point difference in the recent PA polls is realistic or unrealistic.

[FreeReign]

Can you post those 2004 PA turnout results by percentage. That is important because most of the recent PA polls show that 50% of respondents are Democrats and only 38-40% are Republicans. That is showing a 12 point difference.

Turnout in 2004 in Pennsylvania was 37% Republican and 37% Democrat.