Replies

The PA polls ALL have been cooked recently.

I have looked at the demographcis and they are OVERSAMPLING yoiunger, more highly educated female voters. Some of these polls have internal demographics showing that 56% of the respondents and 44% had bachelor’s degrees (only 25% over 25 years of age have bachlors in PA) and 18% had graduate degrees and 60% make over 50,000 a year (average household income inPA is $44,000).

So when you oversample younger females with graduate degrees earning large salaries you easily get a 15 point Obama lead.

This is good news!

-In 2004 Kerry won PA by two points while losing the national vote by 2.5 points. (-4.5; i.e., PA is 4.5 points more Dem than the nation)
-In 2000 Gore carried PA by 4 points while carrying the national vote by a half point. (-3.5)
-In 1996 the Impeached Rapist won PA by 9.2% while winning nationally by 8.5 points (-.7)

So if one safely assumes that PA is about 3 points more Dem than the nation as a whole (as measured by national polls), then a two-point Obama lead in PA spells major trouble for Obama nationally. Think this leaked internal poll is bogus? Then why are all four candidates spending so much time in PA? Why are they spending so much money in PA? We can argue about the particular percentage points, but a reasonable, objective person has to conclude that both campaigns view PA as up for grabs.

And since Ohio tends to be more Republican than PA, it's fair to say that Obama's not doing too well in OH. This is so far supported by somewhat tepid turnout and other word coming out of the Buckeye State.

If the Obamessiah loses OH, his path to the Presidency becomes very narrow. If he loses PA, his journey's over.

That should say polls that show 56% of repsondents are female. There is now way that on Nov 4th in PA 56% of voters are going to be female and only 44% male. It may be 51 female, and 49 male and even that is a stretch. Also no way 44% of those voting will have bachelor’s degrees. Palin will turn out the rural conservative base especially the working class Democrats who don’t vote for national Democrats (Reagan Democrats).