“Now this may be a problem with all of the polls, but I think common sense says that this is a serious outlier when you consider the rest of the polls”
I tend to agree. It is all about the turnout models. Zogby is showing a 2% Democratic edge in their turnout model and is showing a 6% Obama lead. Gallup’s turnout theory is higher for Obama and they show a 10% lead. The same is probably true for GW/Battleground. IBD/TIPP is guessing that turnout will be the same as 2004 (even between Dems and Republicans,) so they have the closest race showing Obama up by 2%.
If one is realistic IBD is probably off this year, Zogby seems like the most realistic, predicting a 2% edge for the Dems.
So, you got the ping.