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To: kabar

You assume that entitlement programs are going to remain as they are. Don’t. We can (and dare I say will) do with a lot less of them in the future.


28 posted on 10/14/2008 7:39:08 AM PDT by RKV (He who has the guns makes the rules)
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To: RKV
You assume that entitlement programs are going to remain as they are. Don’t. We can (and dare I say will) do with a lot less of them in the future.

It takes political will to change those programs. Politicians want to stay in office. In 1983 when SS went into the red, Tip O'Neill and Reagan struck a Faustian bargain and agreed to kick the can down the road by raising taxes and reducing benefits, including raising the retirement age for full benefits from 65 to 67. That fix was supposed to kick the can down the road for 75 years. It didn't as we will be in the same position [only much worse] in 2017, just 34 years later. In 1950 there were 16 workers for every retiree, today there are 3.3, and in 2030 it will be 2. There is no way that benefits are going to be cut for current retirees or those about to retire.

Medicare is a much bigger problem. Social Security reform plans are a dime a dozen, but credible Medicare reform proposals are scarce. Why? Because Medicare's financial problems are so immense as to seem beyond resolution, and the policy environment is complex. Would-be entitlement reformers decry the lack of courageous leadership from politicians, but, truth be told, even the so-called experts are at a loss over how to begin closing Medicare's yawning financing gap.

The most recent report from the program's board of trustees, issued in late March, only adds to the sense of hopelessness. Medicare's liabilities are expected to exceed revenue dedicated to paying for the program by $36 trillion over the next 75 years, and the trust fund that pays for hospital services is expected to go bankrupt in 2019. Total Medicare spending is projected to more than triple as a share of the national economy, rising from 3.2 percent of GDP in 2007 to 6.3 percent in 2030, 8.4 percent in 2050, and 10.7 percent in 2080. Federal individual income tax collections amount to only about 8.5 percent of GDP. Covering just the increase in Medicare spending expected by 2030 would require a 36 percent across-the-board individual income tax hike.

Most Americans don't have a clue about how desparate our financial situation really is. The politicians have papered over and delayed the final reckoning thereby making the problem larger and more difficult to solve. I think your faith in the ruling class is misplaced. Their sole concern is being reelected and enriching themselves. No action is ever taken unless it is a crisis. Well, the crises are coming hot and heavy as the chickens come home to roost.

32 posted on 10/14/2008 7:54:13 AM PDT by kabar
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