I think you’re bang on. Tonight I voted out of fear of a Prime Minister Dion (because polls were saying it was a possibility) and looks like there were many, many like me across Canada doing the same. I think when push comes to shove, fear that Obama could win will also drive conservatives to the polls to vote McCain.
That and overcoming the expected fraudulent vote here...
Probably need 1.2 GOP votes to counteract the fraudulent Dem votes in November.