IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day One (Obama 43 v. McCain 41)

Investor's Business Daily ^ | 10/12/08 | Investor's Business Daily

[BCrago66]

In contrast to other polls, which show Obama leading McCain by 4 points (Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby) to 11 (Newsweek), the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll debuts today with Obama up just 2 points with 13% (including 25% of independents) undecided. The poll was conducted Oct. 6-12 among 825 likely voters.

Q: If the 2008 election for U.S. president were held today and the following were candidates, for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain?

[Thickman]

Lying when polled isn’t a good idea. In fact, lying isn’t a good idea, period.

Thanks for the morality tuner. It was obvious that this was a dummie sponsored poll so I told them what they wanted to hear. I consider that an act of supporting my candidate.

[Repeal 16-17]

If McCain wins, Gallup, Rasmussen and Zogby should be made to apologize for their stupidity in their polling (I’m being generous when I say “stupidity”).

[Frantzie]

Let’s be honest about Bill Clinton. Politically he was pretty moderate on a lot of stuff. Some NE Republicans are far more liberal. I am not defending the guy. I do not like him but I hope he cuts Obama’s b**ls off after Obama loses. The point is many people found Clinton accpetable going into his second term mainly because the stock market was so strong (manipulation again). I hated him but Dole was lackluster and Clinton hammered him from the start.

Obama is not Clinton in 1996. Like you said - Bill was slick but not totally frightening and Newt was watching Bill.

Moderate Dems and Repubs will fight wild dogs and bears to vote against Obama this year.

I expect ACORN may try some intimidation at some polls.

[Thickman]

One poll said 26% of Clinton Dems will be going McCain but I think it may be 30 to 35%. We can grumble about McCain and we WILL fight with him as President but he is acceptable. Many Clinton Dems hate Obama with a passion.

A little extrapolation on the Hillary effect - If 26% of her primary voters (those would be the ones that harbor ill feelings) do not vote for Obama and half of them vote for McCain, that would come to approximately 2.5 million votes in the general election that would go to McCain and another 2.5 million that won't vote for Obama (not vote at all for POTUS).

That comes to a swing of 7.5 million for McCain. That would be HUGH and SERIES! My guess is a total swing effect of about 2 million which should enough to offset fraud, increased dummie turnout and increased AA turnout. From there it is up to McCain to hold the pubbies and independents that Bush got in 2004.

[Chunga]

It was obvious that this was a dummie sponsored poll so I told them what they wanted to hear. I consider that an act of supporting my candidate.

You're wrong about that. At this stage of the game Dem polls are used for propaganda purposes and to engender a deteriorating effect on Republican morale.

[CSI007]

You have got to be one of the most pessimistic people I have ever seen online. I don’t even thing optimistic is in your vocabulary.

[BCrago66]

I can’t find the internals. Where does it say what percentage of the sample is Democrats, what percentage is Republicans, and what percentage is Independents?

[Thickman]

You're wrong about that. At this stage of the game Dem polls are used for propaganda purposes and to engender a deteriorating effect on Republican morale.

No, I am not. Any disinformation imparted to the enemy helps your own cause. Sun Tse would approve. Besides, it did not matter how I answered because if I had been pro McCain, that would not have made it into a propaganda poll. By lying, I gave the enemy a false sense of security.

[ncalburt]

OH NO !
The poll actually uses the last two Presidential voter turnouts as the away to measure the 2008 polls .
That outrageous!
The Obama media only allows a 6-10 % Obama advantage in all VALID polls !

[jwalsh07]

[Thickman]

I can’t find the internals. Where does it say what percentage of the sample is Democrats, what percentage is Republicans, and what percentage is Independents?

Someone posted that it was even D and R but I have seen no link or proof of that.

[ncalburt]

So you’ve noticed Too !
He is very supportive all negative McCain poll data !

[Frantzie]

Good analysis.

I think a lot of the Hillary ladies will hang in there for McCain thanks to McCain picking Palin. Male Clinton voters in alrge numbers should go to McCain.

The Clinton voters really believe they were robbed and it appears it was ACORN and Obama robbing them. The MSM brushed it off as a story but the Clinton people know what happened.

Obama stole their Dem Party too. This is their last chance to stop him and voting McCain in the hopes Hillary runs in 2012 is the right approch for them.

[Thickman]

Thank you for posting the internals. Did anyone look at the “ideology” section? Now that is peculiar.

It can be surmised that this is showing about 1.5 - 2% edge to Dems in the sampling.

[ncalburt]

The most accurate national poll in 2004 !
This is not a formula driven tracking poll like Ras or Gallup but a real poll over a 6 day period.

[CSI007]

If you look at the internals posted above you will see that many of the numbers reflect how presidential elections have turned out over the past 25 years or so.

[jwalsh07]

There is good news in the IBD/TIPP poll. ANd that good news is that Obama's lead in large part accomplished by a large lead in the Northeast. Which is expected btw. But it is large enough to skew the poll results to Obama. The point is we don't really care how much Obama wins the Northeast by.

Disappointing in the poll is the large Jewish vote for Obama and the even split by Catholics, the latter really pisses me off btw.

[jwalsh07]

It can be surmised that this is showing about 1.5 - 2% edge to Dems in the sampling.

Pretty close I'd say based on the party voting stats. I think they are using 2006 as party ID for weighting, Dems +3. Which seems reasonable.

[Thickman]

Disappointing in the poll is the large Jewish vote for Obama and the even split by Catholics, the latter really pisses me off btw.

Me too. All these liberal Catholics who vote dummie for social justice issues will not once vote on the single issue of abortion (even when the dummie candidate is for infanticide)!

[bpjam]

Clinton was only ‘moderate’ because he had a GOP Congress which was very conservative. Clinton was also completely slavishly driven by polls so he might WANT to do stuff but he knew that he would be punished politically and suffer in the polls. And popularity was more important to Clinton than virtually anything else in life other than available women.