These polls are pretty much in line with other public polls. I’m all for being optimistic, but you can’t be serious and say all the polls are wrong. I’m worried about the senate. The Fox panel on Brit Hume predicted a filibuster proof senate. That’s scary. It’s totally unfair and unjustified, but the market is just killing the Republicans right now. We need a rally in the stock market and a little thawing in the credit markets for us to have a shot.
All public polls that do not oversample Democrats indicate a race that’s statistically tied nationally and tend to favor McCain in terms of state polls. These flawed polls form the basis of Real Clear Politics’ averages as well as electoral vote predictors.
Take Virginia, for example. The demographics of this state have not changed much since 2004. In that year, Bush won by 8 points, and Republicans had a four-point advantage in the demographics. In 2006, possibly the worst year for Republicans in my lifetime, they had a three-point advantage. Now, go look at the polls that Real Clear Politics is using in Virginia.
1) PPP has Obama up by 8. A closer look at the internals shows they undersample whites by 5 percent and oversample blacks by 4. Democrats also have a five-point advantage in party identification.
2) Survey USA has Obama up by 10. They oversample blacks by 3% and give Democrats a nine-point advantage.
3) Suffolk has Obama up by 12. Their internals show that they too oversample blacks, undersample whites, oversample women, and oversample Democrats (by a 45-31 margin).
The closest thing to a balanced poll is Rasmussen, who has Obama up by 2. The demographics available look reasonable. What we do is that Rasmussen uses a party weighting system that’s not accurate nationwide and certainly not accurate for this state.
You can choose to believe manufactured polls if you want. You probably thought Kerry was taking Pennsylvania in 2004 by a 20-point margin as well.
I'm never one for conspiracy rtheories... But I truly believe that the Dems caused the economic mess... I'm not talking solely FHLMC and FNMA, I'm talking anout sevetal months of a concerted effort to talk down the economy... To depress consumer sentiment... To bring these financial disasters at the most opportune time... Sandwiches so gracedully smack between our GOP convention and the election... Coincidence? please...
The msm will stop at nothing to get zero elected... If that means they destroy innocents like Palen, so be it.. If they destroy the economy--- well worth it, it's just collateral damage....never underestimate their powert to influence