[Irene Adler]

How do you know what balance should be? How do I know? Pollsters make it their business to know. Sure, there are push-polling organizations that are less than honest, but the well-known pollsters use standard, well-developed statistical techniques to calibrate their polls. I doubt they are very far off.

[LS]

Just look at the last election, for Pete's sake. It isn't that tough. And to the extent that there are suddenly "more Democrats," you don't remember Operation Chaos? Heck, my WIFE registered as a Dem just to screw things up. In OH, that was huge.

This country has been about a 35-35-30 country, give or take a couple of %, for 20 years, and there is no way in the course of one or two polling cycles it went to a 50-25 country.

And no, pollsters don't get it right. Sometimes they do (as in 2006), sometimes they don't (1994, where every one missed a tsunami). None of them picked up Obama's fade in the primaries.