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In 2005, Bear Stearns analysts determined that the surveys conducted by the Census Bureau undercounted the number of illegal immigrants by far more than 10%. Through discussions with illegal immigrants, Bear Stearns found that immigrants avoid responding to Census questionnaires and work very hard to conceal their identities.

As an alternative to the residual method, Bear Stearns used micro-economic indicators to project an alternative estimate. They examined trends in school enrollment, foreign remittances and housing permits in states with high populations of undocumented immigrants like Texas, California, and New York.

Underpinning Bear Stearns’ estimate of 20 million illegal immigrants is the identification of two patterns: 1) a trend of sharply increased demand for public services in communities that have become gateways for immigration, and 2) increases in foreign remittances (money sent back to an immigrant’s native country), housing permits and border-crossings.

Given the unrecorded nature of the illegal immigration phenomenon, it’s unlikely that a well-founded or rigorous method of measurement will be developed. The reality is, the math is fuzzy and the most definitive conclusion one can make is that the measurements of illegal immigrants in the U.S. are subject to extreme inaccuracies.

Published Apr 10 2008, 08:47 AM by Eliza Krigman |

for starters