I just checked the NBC/WSJ internals (available at http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/081006_NBC-WSJ_Full_Release.pdf). If I read it right, here is the breakdown for that poll (including leaners):
Dem: 44
GOP: 36
Ind/others: 20
If you exclude the indepedents who lean one way or the other, the breakdown is this:
Dem: 31 (21 strong DEM, 10 weak Dem)
GOP: 25 (17 strong GOP, 8 weak” GOP)
IND: 39 (15 not leaning, 13 leaning Dem, 11 leaning GOP)
Either way, this is not a representative sample of likely voters.
This is the second straight poll in less than an hour that shows what some of us have been saying all week about where this race really stands. Having said that, this poll is such a mess internally that I would totally dismiss it rather than infer (as I did with the CBS poll) that, in fact, McCain may actually be slightly ahead again in a real likely voter sample.
The simple fact is all pollsters make ASSUMPTIONS about turnout.
This year they’re buying to the “coming youth vote tidal wave” delusion.
The next time it happens will be the first.
I agree with you. The internals of the NBC/WSJ poll looks good for McCain as well.
McCain/Palin - still with a slight lead in a close race.
I’ve heard that Rasmussen lags behind the trends seen in other polls. Is that true and if so, why?