Posted on 10/06/2008 3:51:28 PM PDT by Chet 99
CBS Poll: Presidential Race Tightens
Democrat Barack Obama Retaining Small Lead Over McCain More Than Half Of Americans Polled Disapprove Of Bailout
NEW YORK (CBS) ― In a sign that the race for president has returned to about where it was before the first presidential debate, the Obama-Biden ticket leads the McCain-Palin ticket 47 percent to 43 percent among registered voters in a new CBS News poll.
The Obama-Biden ticket led by a wider margin, nine percentage points, in a CBS News poll released last Wednesday, before Joe Biden and Sarah Palin faced off in the vice presidential debate. Obama-Biden led by five percentage points on Sept. 25.
In the new poll, the Democratic ticket leads by 3 percentage points, 48 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters.
Barack Obama holds a 20 point lead in terms of enthusiasm. Fifty-eight percent of Obama voters say they are very enthusiastic about their candidate, while only 38 percent of John McCain voters say the same about the Arizona senator.
Roughly one in five registered voters have yet to commit to a candidate, though they may lean towards one or the other.
Interest in tomorrow's presidential debate is high. Roughly two in three registered voters say they are "very likely" to watch the debate, about the same percentage who said they were very likely to watch the first presidential debate and the vice presidential debate.
A CBS News poll conducted last week showed that more uncommitted voters thought Obama won the first debate, and nearly half of all voters expect he will win this debate too. Just one in four expect McCain to win.
The Vice Presidential Debate:
Both Biden and Palin appear to have benefited from their performance in the vice presidential debate. Both now have 40 percent approval ratings - an increase of six points for Biden and eight points for Palin from their pre-debate approval ratings.
Palin's unfavorable rating of 32 percent is significantly higher, however, than Biden's 19 percent unfavorable rating. And on the key questions of whether each candidate is ready to be vice president, or, if necessary, president, majorities see only Biden as passing the test.
Seventy-five percent of registered voters say Biden is prepared to be vice president, and 65 percent say he could be an effective president; just 42 percent say Palin is prepared to be vice president and only 37 percent say she could be an effective president. Even Republicans are more likely than not to concede Biden could be an effective president.
As uncommitted voters did in a CBS News/Knowledge Networks poll conducted immediately after the debate, registered voters who watched the debate give the "win" to Biden, 50 percent to 31 percent.
Both Biden and Palin improved their overall images somewhat in the debate, and both are seen by about six in ten voters as sharing their values. About one in three registered voters say the vice presidential candidates will have a lot of influence on their vote in November, the same percentage that said as much before the debate.
The Top Of The Ticket:
Obama continues to lead McCain when it comes to his overall favorable/unfavorable rating: The Democratic nominee has a favorable rating of 46 percent and an unfavorable rating of 34 percent. Registered voters are more closely split on McCain, who holds a favorable rating of 40 percent and an unfavorable rating of 38 percent.
Sixty-two percent of registered voters see both Obama and McCain as having the ability to be an effective president.
McCain has distanced himself somewhat from President George W. Bush, who currently has among the lowest approval ratings of any modern president. In this poll, 38 percent say that if elected president McCain would generally continue Mr. Bush's policies, down from 46 percent last month. This is the lowest percentage to link McCain to the president's policies since last April.
Obama has lost some ground when it comes to perceptions of how he would handle the economy, though he still leads McCain when it comes to the issue.
Twenty-four percent of registered voters are "very confident" that the Democratic nominee would make the right decisions on the economy, down five points from before the presidential debate. Forty-one percent are not confident, up from 34 percent.
Fifteen percent are "very confident" in McCain when it comes to the economy, meanwhile, and 44 percent are not confident.
The race continues to be close among independents. In this poll McCain has a small edge, 44 percent to 39 percent, among the group. At the end of last week it was Obama with a small lead. Independents have swung back and forth between the two candidates for the last few weeks.
Obama is leading among Democrats, liberals, moderates and voters who supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries. He has not improved his support among former Clinton voters in recent weeks, and presently has the support of roughly two in three.
McCain is leading among Republicans, Independents and conservatives. He is also leading among whites, including both white Catholics and white evangelicals, as well as whites making less than $50,000 a year who do not have a college degree.
The Bailout Plan, Congress And The President:
Last week Congress enacted a financial rescue plan on its second try - and while Americans are more negative than ever about the state of the economy, a majority (51 percent) disapprove of the bailout package. Just 31 percent say they approve.
Americans continue to think Wall Street is more likely to benefit from the government's economic bailout than the rest of the country. Sixty-percent say the plan will just benefit Wall Street, while 30 percent say it will help everyone.
A majority of Americans now disapprove of the government providing money to financial institutions. A week ago Americans were evenly split on the question; now just 36 percent approve while 52 percent disapprove.
And even though a majority remains much more accepting of the idea of helping homeowners, even that number is down from last week, with 54 percent now approving and 37 percent disapproving.
Few Americans approve of how either the president or Congress is handling the financial crisis. Both receive identical 21 percent approval ratings on the measure.
Fifty-five percent now say the economy is in very bad shape - the highest number ever recorded in a CBS News Poll. Only 11 percent think the condition of the economy is even somewhat good.
Moreover, Americans remain pessimistic about the economy's future: three in four think the economy is getting worse. Only 3 percent think the economy is getting better, while one in five thinks it is staying the same.
President Bush's overall job approval rating is 22 percent - the same as it was last week and the lowest of his presidency. Congress also receives dismal overall ratings from the public. Only 15 percent of Americans approve of the way Congress is handling its job, the same as last week. Seventy-two percent now disapprove of Congress' job, including a majority of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.
This poll was conducted among a random sample of 957 adults nationwide, including 875 registered voters, interviewed by telephone October 3-5, 2008. Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample and the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher.
Did they say that? While I am beginning to believe that myself I am disappointed to hear them say that publicly.
This is much more like it. There is no way that Barry is ahead by 6-10 points. And, with both McCain and Sarah on the warpath, the gap is gonna close even further over the next week.
That would be a good ad..the all powerfull Obama behind the screen. (in a Oz sort of way.)
An encouraging poll?
Where are the usual suspects (tatown, et al)?
Hmmmm?
drama queens=better ratings
Plaintiffs filed their class action lawsuit on July 6, 1994, alleging that Citibank had engaged in redlining practices in the Chicago metropolitan area in violation of the Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA), 15 U.S.C. 1691; the Fair Housing Act, 42 U.S.C. 3601-3619; the Thirteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution; and 42 U.S.C. 1981, 1982. Plaintiffs alleged that the Defendant-bank rejected loan applications of minority applicants while approving loan applications filed by white applicants with similar financial characteristics and credit histories. Plaintiffs sought injunctive relief, actual damages, and punitive damages.
U.S. District Court Judge Ruben Castillo certified the Plaintiffs’ suit as a class action on June 30, 1995. Buycks-Roberson v. Citibank Fed. Sav. Bank, 162 F.R.D. 322 (N.D. Ill. 1995). Also on June 30, Judge Castillo granted Plaintiffs’ motion to compel discovery of a sample of Defendant-bank’s loan application files. Buycks-Roberson v. Citibank Fed. Sav. Bank, 162 F.R.D. 338 (N.D. Ill. 1995).
Obama, Barack H. (Illinois)
FH-IL-0011-7500 | FH-IL-0011-7501 | FH-IL-0011-9000
http://clearinghouse.wustl.edu/detail.php?id=10112&search=source|general;caseCat|FH;orderby|caseName
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Suck on this Obama!
Here are the weighted internals for the RV portion of the poll (O47, M43):
GOP: 28.3
Dem: 37.9
Ind: 33.7
In other words, the usual weighted distribution for a See-BS poll (DEM advantage of nearly 10 points) — yet RV margin is only 4 points (it was 9 points last week with a similar oversampling of Democrats). Without even doing the math, if you readjust these numbers to reflect likely Party ID on election day, McCain is now even or ahead in this poll.
Link: http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Oct08a-ALL.pdf
Rev Wright 24/7, from here on in, wins it for McCuda in a landslide.
They basically said barring an unforeseen disaster for the Obama camp, McCain loses.
I OTOH think McCain will pull it out.
Here is the breakdown of participants, straight from the poll’s PDF:
Total Respondents (Unweighted) 957
RV (Unweighted) 875, (Weighted) 821
REP RV (U) 248, (W) 233
DEM RV (U) 320, (W) 311
IND RV (U) 307, (W) 277
Effective likely voters 616
The buttway boy kind of like a queen.
GOP: 28.3
Dem: 37.9
Ind: 33.7
I have a post about this somewhere in this thread after the comment to which I am responding.
She certainly did with me.
All these 'damned' polls flailing with every breeze. No way am I going to believe that many people are changing their minds that many times in a given month or week. No way!
I have changed my mind once, and only once.
I was not going to vote for McCain. Period. Then, John selected Governor Palin as his vice-presidential choice.
Now, I am going to vote for McCain/Palin with the hopes that, shortly after inauguration day, John McCain has to step down to be with family for medical reasons.
That way, JohnnyMac is no longer beholden to those that have led to his back-stabbing ways of the past ten years and we have a true CONSERVATIVE champion to bring this nation back from the precipice of disaster!
I know this was long winded but, ain't it a tad sight better than another danged vanity posting?!?
When this goes viral and Hannity airs the details hopefully next Sunday Obama will be lucky to be voted dog catcher, makes Willie Horton look like Tinkerbell.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8QcpdUtxNQ
How about Obama openly campaigning for his communist cousin Odinga who signed a pact with Muslims to enact Sharia Law if elected and started riots when he lost. Obama campaigned for an openly Anti-American candidate in a foreign country in 2006 at taxpayer expense.
AND THEY SHOULDN’T BE SAYING THAT!! FOX Should reign those assh*les in big time. Let them say it the day of the election, not a month out.
Not unbelievable at all. The polls (including this one) are repeatedly overloading their samples with Democrats. Put enough Democrats in any poll, and Obama will lead no matter how well McCain is doing among Republicans and Independents.
Yep, the Buttway Boys have no credibility with me any more. They are completely out of touch.
Some interesting internals. In their 10/1/08 they showed Obama leading McCain 43% - 38% among independents. The new poll shows the opposite 44% to 39% McCain. This alone tells me that based on their results, McCain is likely ahead.
Additionally, this poll shows that McCain is getting 26% of Clinton voters. Again, this would indicate that Obama might have a bigger uphill climb that some of the other polls might be indicating.
Either way, this poll is good news on a day where most of the news has been bad.
Amen! I was just watching Fred and the gang on Fox. They all but said McCain was done. The only one that seemed to think he still had a chance was (hold on to your hats!)...JUAN WILLIAMS!
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