Posted on 10/06/2008 3:51:28 PM PDT by Chet 99
CBS Poll: Presidential Race Tightens
Democrat Barack Obama Retaining Small Lead Over McCain More Than Half Of Americans Polled Disapprove Of Bailout
NEW YORK (CBS) ― In a sign that the race for president has returned to about where it was before the first presidential debate, the Obama-Biden ticket leads the McCain-Palin ticket 47 percent to 43 percent among registered voters in a new CBS News poll.
The Obama-Biden ticket led by a wider margin, nine percentage points, in a CBS News poll released last Wednesday, before Joe Biden and Sarah Palin faced off in the vice presidential debate. Obama-Biden led by five percentage points on Sept. 25.
In the new poll, the Democratic ticket leads by 3 percentage points, 48 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters.
Barack Obama holds a 20 point lead in terms of enthusiasm. Fifty-eight percent of Obama voters say they are very enthusiastic about their candidate, while only 38 percent of John McCain voters say the same about the Arizona senator.
Roughly one in five registered voters have yet to commit to a candidate, though they may lean towards one or the other.
Interest in tomorrow's presidential debate is high. Roughly two in three registered voters say they are "very likely" to watch the debate, about the same percentage who said they were very likely to watch the first presidential debate and the vice presidential debate.
A CBS News poll conducted last week showed that more uncommitted voters thought Obama won the first debate, and nearly half of all voters expect he will win this debate too. Just one in four expect McCain to win.
The Vice Presidential Debate:
Both Biden and Palin appear to have benefited from their performance in the vice presidential debate. Both now have 40 percent approval ratings - an increase of six points for Biden and eight points for Palin from their pre-debate approval ratings.
Palin's unfavorable rating of 32 percent is significantly higher, however, than Biden's 19 percent unfavorable rating. And on the key questions of whether each candidate is ready to be vice president, or, if necessary, president, majorities see only Biden as passing the test.
Seventy-five percent of registered voters say Biden is prepared to be vice president, and 65 percent say he could be an effective president; just 42 percent say Palin is prepared to be vice president and only 37 percent say she could be an effective president. Even Republicans are more likely than not to concede Biden could be an effective president.
As uncommitted voters did in a CBS News/Knowledge Networks poll conducted immediately after the debate, registered voters who watched the debate give the "win" to Biden, 50 percent to 31 percent.
Both Biden and Palin improved their overall images somewhat in the debate, and both are seen by about six in ten voters as sharing their values. About one in three registered voters say the vice presidential candidates will have a lot of influence on their vote in November, the same percentage that said as much before the debate.
The Top Of The Ticket:
Obama continues to lead McCain when it comes to his overall favorable/unfavorable rating: The Democratic nominee has a favorable rating of 46 percent and an unfavorable rating of 34 percent. Registered voters are more closely split on McCain, who holds a favorable rating of 40 percent and an unfavorable rating of 38 percent.
Sixty-two percent of registered voters see both Obama and McCain as having the ability to be an effective president.
McCain has distanced himself somewhat from President George W. Bush, who currently has among the lowest approval ratings of any modern president. In this poll, 38 percent say that if elected president McCain would generally continue Mr. Bush's policies, down from 46 percent last month. This is the lowest percentage to link McCain to the president's policies since last April.
Obama has lost some ground when it comes to perceptions of how he would handle the economy, though he still leads McCain when it comes to the issue.
Twenty-four percent of registered voters are "very confident" that the Democratic nominee would make the right decisions on the economy, down five points from before the presidential debate. Forty-one percent are not confident, up from 34 percent.
Fifteen percent are "very confident" in McCain when it comes to the economy, meanwhile, and 44 percent are not confident.
The race continues to be close among independents. In this poll McCain has a small edge, 44 percent to 39 percent, among the group. At the end of last week it was Obama with a small lead. Independents have swung back and forth between the two candidates for the last few weeks.
Obama is leading among Democrats, liberals, moderates and voters who supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries. He has not improved his support among former Clinton voters in recent weeks, and presently has the support of roughly two in three.
McCain is leading among Republicans, Independents and conservatives. He is also leading among whites, including both white Catholics and white evangelicals, as well as whites making less than $50,000 a year who do not have a college degree.
The Bailout Plan, Congress And The President:
Last week Congress enacted a financial rescue plan on its second try - and while Americans are more negative than ever about the state of the economy, a majority (51 percent) disapprove of the bailout package. Just 31 percent say they approve.
Americans continue to think Wall Street is more likely to benefit from the government's economic bailout than the rest of the country. Sixty-percent say the plan will just benefit Wall Street, while 30 percent say it will help everyone.
A majority of Americans now disapprove of the government providing money to financial institutions. A week ago Americans were evenly split on the question; now just 36 percent approve while 52 percent disapprove.
And even though a majority remains much more accepting of the idea of helping homeowners, even that number is down from last week, with 54 percent now approving and 37 percent disapproving.
Few Americans approve of how either the president or Congress is handling the financial crisis. Both receive identical 21 percent approval ratings on the measure.
Fifty-five percent now say the economy is in very bad shape - the highest number ever recorded in a CBS News Poll. Only 11 percent think the condition of the economy is even somewhat good.
Moreover, Americans remain pessimistic about the economy's future: three in four think the economy is getting worse. Only 3 percent think the economy is getting better, while one in five thinks it is staying the same.
President Bush's overall job approval rating is 22 percent - the same as it was last week and the lowest of his presidency. Congress also receives dismal overall ratings from the public. Only 15 percent of Americans approve of the way Congress is handling its job, the same as last week. Seventy-two percent now disapprove of Congress' job, including a majority of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents.
This poll was conducted among a random sample of 957 adults nationwide, including 875 registered voters, interviewed by telephone October 3-5, 2008. Phone numbers were dialed from RDD samples of both standard land-lines and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample and the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups is higher.
Turnout in 1996 was pretty much the same as 2000:
D39
R35
I26
I think we have been taking a pounding on the market and bailout. We were stuck on the bailout and had too sign or we would have lost and had been blamed even though Dems caused it with Fannie and Freddie. Ignore this Wall Street greed crap - Fannie and Freddie (CRAs Obamabi) were 90% the reason.
Anyway - we have been pounded on the economy/financial implosion, unfairly, and we are at least tied and probably leading.
Sarah just launched the counter attack.
This Is The Poll I Am Interested In:
Sarah’s crowds versus Obama’s crowds. Obama is the “rock star” but has crowds are half Sarah’s and I think Obama crowds are dwindling. These crowds tell me more than any poll.
Obama has gone from a bright star to a dim bulb.
So even in a bad year for Republicans, it was only a 4 point spread.
This poll makes MUCH more sense. Expect it to tighten further following Tuesday’s debate, as well as the long-overdue vetting of Barack Obama being carried out by McCain and Palin on the trail.
What! The poll was weighted with 9.6% more Democrats than Republicans! 37.9% Dems and 28.3% Repubs!?!?!
This is almost 33% more Democrats than Republicans!!! The poll has more Independents than Republicans?!?
Who comes up with these methodologies some weird imaginary friend of Joe Biden’s down at his local Home Depot?
McCain is only down 3 points?
Folks ignore the polls. Go to a local McCain HQ and volunteer and donate with your credit card (as I am daily).
Imagine that. :-)
Yes. And in the 2006 mid-term election, which was even worse for Republicans, the Dem advantage was only 3 points. This is why all these polls with big advantages for Democrats are so misleading.
WE'RE DOOMED!!!!! Oh, the humanity! [sob]
By the way, interesting comparison on McCain's indie numbers vs. Kerry/Bush and Bush/Gore.
Always try to help with these things when I can. :)
Right. And this weighting is deliberate with CBS polls. If you want to compare this weighting with what has actually happened in actual elections to see just how overly Rat-infested it is, see the following link:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/independents/data-party-identification.html
You're right, that may be a bit high. Exit polls (whatever they're worth) for 2004 showed 77% white voters. But McCain down 6-7? No way.
As previously revealed....
I was once a member of the “youth vote”.
While in college, I took an oath to vote for my idol, Hubert H. Humphrey.
However, in early November I was abducted by a roaming band of scalawags who forced me to attend a 3 day kegger which, unfortunately, encompassed election day, 1968.
where’s steve-b the troll
I'd say you made the right choice.
Sucks! The race is tightening up according to the CBS POLL; when all the talking Idiots are trying to say McCain is getting desperate by trying to educate the American Public how dangerous Obama HUSSEIN is and how dangerous and disgusting his associates are as well.
Looks like Obama Bin Ladin HUSSEIN knows he is going down in flames in a heap and wants to prolong the Pain!
Note that a certain “CatOwner” has also not chimed in.
This is one statistic I believe in that McCain is getting 26% of Hillary voters. I guessed it was somewhere in that range. Based on the Bradley/Wilder effect it could be as high as 30 to 35%.
If I am a working class white Democrat and I saw Obama hijack the Dem Party by demonizing Hillary (his supporters did it even more) and through ACORN tactics at the caucases - you know I would be voting for McCain.
If McCain wins the Clintons will probably grab the Dem Party back. It will be a war but losers usually pay dearly in the Dem party.
I think the polls are BS but I think the Hillary voters going 25 to 30% to McCain is valid. Hussein Obama will have to bag a LOT of independents and Republicans (yeah right) to make that up.
Fight, work hard, donate and volunteer. No whining.
The race issue cannot be understated. He is also going to get slammed on values...rocky road ahead.
Thanks to Hannity’s exposure of the truth last night...!!!!
I'm not very enthusiastic about McCain. But I'll be voting for him. I'm very anti-enthusiastic, if there is such a word, about Obama.
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