Posted on 10/06/2008 3:51:28 PM PDT by Chet 99
Yup.
Another ugly scenario is a McCain 270 to 268 electoral college win. They’d have over a month to bribe and/or intimidate just one McCain elector to flip and throw it to the Dem controlled House.
McCain/Palin - still with a slight lead in a close race.
I’ve heard that Rasmussen lags behind the trends seen in other polls. Is that true and if so, why?
Caught me. I posted my comment, read it on the board, and it was too late.
Good for you to catch it. You’re the only one so far.
Polls are just another form of deceit designed to herd political livestock. Moo-oo-oo-o-o!
McCain has to do well tomorrow night, otherwise it is over. The third debate won't matter.
Democratic House candidates may have received 5.4% more votes than Republican House candidates, and so on. But I am talking about actual Party ID. In 2006, the breakdown was D37, R34, and I29, and together this mix cast 5.4% more votes for Democratic House candidates than Republican House candidates. It turns out that the Independents voted for Democrats by a 57-39 margin, compared to 49-46 in 2004 -- and that's essentially why the House flipped the way it did.
Incidentally, while retrieving this information, I noticed something else that was very interesting. In 2004, the Independents favored Kerry, but only by a single point: 49-48. In 2000, they favored Dubya 47-45. In the Gallup polling for Sept. 22-28, McCain led this group by nine points. With McCain doing better with Independents than Dubya did and holding his own GOP base, Obama is going to need ridiculously high turnout with his own base (signficantly better than Kerry, who is already the second highest vote-getter in Presidential election history) in order to win the election.
But hey, all the media polls say Obama is going to win in a landslide. Past election history doesn't matter. Actual polling data doesn't matter. What matters is that the media says that Obama will win and resistance from stupid Republicans is futile. Right?
Everyday for over a week you were told the Gallup RV poll was flawed and misleading. You kept posting it anyway, as means of providing a forum in which well meaning FReepers could br battered by trolls.
You knew that and yet, you persisted.
Now, stop it!
Take the pledge, tatown, only LV polls from now on.
I wish Rush would issue orders to the Army that whenever polled to say you are a democrat or independent and that you are voting for Obama. We should all do this. Let’s get the dems so sure of a landslide that half of them don’t bother to show up to vote. This would be a good start in ending these incessant daily polls by rendering them even more obviously meaningless than they already are.
Has anyone seen the Obama network on Dish Television? I can imagine that after Obama is elected he will feature Rev. Wright’s sermons on his network.
So if McCain does badly tomorrow, but in the third debate Obama undresses and runs around the debate stage screaming "ALLAH AKBAR!!!" for the entirety of the 90 minute debate, it will make no difference and the election will still be over and for Obama by a landslide? Interesting.
But, but, but where are CatOwner, steve-b, tatown and ulandsauffhwerwer at? I thought for sure they would post a poll like this in an instant!
The sample in NBC/WSJ is 82% white, this is way too high (76% would be quite good for McCain).
If I had to guess, McCain is down by 6 or 7 right now, and will not get any closer till the Dow stabilizes, and preferably above the 10000 mark, not below it.
The turnout will be much closer to 2004’s model than 2006’s. If you truly believe otherwise, fine. You’re not alone. But you’re also fooling yourself.
The next time it happens will be the first.
There is never going to be a first time.
I saw today on FNC that "young people" are overwhelmingly supporting Obama (more than 60%).
The question that was reasonably posed is whether they'll bother going to the polls. If the latest "US" magazine has just been released, it's JagBomb night at the local bar, and the season finale of "Big Brother" is being televised all on Nov 4th, Obama may have a problem.
Sadly, my greatest hope for defeating Hussein is also my greatest fear.
Seems our youngest are not our brightest.
What were the turnout ratios in 1996?
I don't know. Rasmussen doesn't publish his internals or any "snapshot" polls (polls for a single night rather than a three day rolling average), at least not unless you are willing to pay for them.
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