Try 2000. A race similar to 08, with no Incumbent Paul.
In their Final tracking polls in 2000:
Rasmussen Bush +8
Gallup Bush +4
Battleground Bush +5
Not quite the Gold Standard. RAS was laughed at by Fox News in 2000
Oops, I may have misspoke about the Gallup results in 2000. Gallup did get 2004 right.