Gallup Daily: Obama Leads 50% to 42%

Gallup ^ | 10/6/2008 | Gallup

[101st]

The only poll hat counts in on election day. I cannot be selective in the results I post as I deal in reality. McCain is now defending States won by Bush. Where I live, Indiana, Obama has dozens of field offices. McCain had 1! Obama is coming to Indianapolis on Wednesday and was in Southern Indiana, a swing district, last week.

I wish these polls had different results, but they don't. I post them for the sake of discussion. We could all post that the polls are lying and copy/paste each others post until we all die from boredom.

A new SurveyUSA poll finds John McCain's chances of winning Virginia slipping away. Barack Obama is ahead in the state by ten points, 53% to 43%. The full results:

As McCain's Lead Among White Virginians Shrinks, So Too His Chances of Holding The State's 13 Electoral Votes: 29 days until votes are counted in Virginia, Democrat Barack Obama is ahead 53% to 43%, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. In 4 tracking polls conducted since the Republican Convention, McCain has gone from up by 2 to down by 10.

There is movement among men, where immediately after the GOP convention, McCain led by 10, and where today Obama leads by 11.

There is movement among whites, where McCain's once 22-point lead is today reduced to single digits.

There is movement among the well-to-do, where today for the first time Obama leads.

There is movement among pro-choice voters, where Obama's lead has doubled since August.

McCain no longer leads in any region of the state. In Northeastern VA, which includes the DC suburbs, Obama leads by 24 points. In Central Virginia, home of the Confederate White House, the Museum of the Confederacy and Appomattox, Obama today leads by 8. In Southeastern Virginia, Obama leads by 11. In the Shenandoah, where John McCain led by 24 points one month ago, Obama and McCain today tie.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Virginia adults 10/04/08 and 10/05/08. Of the adults, 832 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 666 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Virginia has 13 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Virginia by 8 points in both 2004 and 2000. Virginia last cast its Electoral College votes for a Democratic Presidential candidate in 1964, when Lyndon Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater.

A Suffolk Poll shows Obama with a similarly commanding lead in the state, 51% to 39%.

On OffTheBus, Diane Tucker reports that new voter registration in Virginia has far exceeded the Obama campaign's goals. The Politico adds that Virginia Republicans are warning McCain that he could lose the state, which has gone Republican in every presidential election since 1964.

[nmh]

Yes it can - the election is McCain's to lose - and he's doing just that

He pisses me off in a MAJOR way.

He needs to get off his HIGH HORSE.

It's the rest of us that are screwed by the Obomination. Cindy will continue to pay for him. I am so sick of this hero stuff ... (sorry about that) ... it's time for him to be a hero and win this election and then we still have to pray that he hasn't totally forgotten about conservatives across the aisle from him.

I nearly puked when I heard he is PROMISING to put DEMONCRATS in his CABINET and elsewhere. What is WRONG with this guy? Demoncrats are NOT his friends. Okay, I'll stop here .... although I'd love to go on and on and on.

[nmh]

Worse yet, I really don’t want McPain in the arse.

I HATE having to vote for the idiot.

[Little Ray]

Joe Btfsplk
His last name sounds like a “raspberry.”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Btfsplk

[MHGinTN]

I grew up reading Al Capp in the newspaper. Thanx so much for the nudge down memory lane.

[word_warrior_bob]

We are in no worse position at this point and time than we have traditionally been.

We have been further behind at this date and won LANDSLIDES.

Anyone who wants to talk about “reality” or “likely” this and that about an Obama win needs to check themsleves. If history is our guide the “reality” and “likely” outcome is that the REPUBLICAN is going to win this Presidential election.

It’s time to CIRCLE THE WAGONS
.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8QcpdUtxNQ

How about Obama openly campaigning for his communist cousin Odinga who signed a pact with Muslims to enact Sharia Law if elected and started riots when he lost. Obama campaigned for an openly Anti-American candidate in a foreign country in 2006.

[Little Ray]

My dad read them to me when I was little. Li’l Abner, Prince Valiant, Mark Trail, Peanuts, etc.
Sadly, my daughters don’t seem interested...

[deep]

Well regardless of the polls, we need a big flub from Obama.

[w1nston]

Independents AREe the dumbest species on the planet. How you can be undecided at this point is beyond me. The choices are stark and clear.

[bailmeout]

I’m calling BS on Gallup. The only way Obama is up +8% to +9% is with an extreme Dem weighting.

Looking at the Gallup internals for the week ending October 5, McCain is +9 with independents for the third straight week. Back of the envelope, only a Dem vs. Repub weighting of +10 or so gets Obama to his current margin. With equal Dem vs Repub turnout, like the 2004 election, the race is tied right now.