I dunno. Forecasting the future is fraught with error.
In my trading, I try to not spend much time predicting the future. I try to make sure I have a plan to respond to the market when it gets to a certain point up or down - because it will happen in time.
This is sorta like the poster on the wall of some Marine barracks in Iraq: “Have a plan to kill everyone you meet.” You’re not going to kill everyone you meet, but one person out of the hundreds you meet in any given day might be trying to kill YOU, and it would be a handy thing to have a plan what to do about it before the situation arises.
Likewise, the market will do a lot of very strange things in enough time. It is better, (I have found, anyway) to have a plan what to do when (not if) it gets there. For example, I’ve been going over a lot of stocks/companies, looking for “Who do I want to buy AFTER the crash?” I didn’t know when the crash would happen. I don’t know how deep it will be. I don’t know how long it will last.
But I’ve got some ideas of companies I want to own on the other side, so when things start to signal that we’ve bottomed out, I have a shopping list in hand.
I’ve finally reached the point where if our retirement savings goes any lower, I will not sleep well at night. The panic has set in and I’m selling.
Will you tell us when you think the market has reached bottom, when that time comes? Then we’ll buy back in. :-)