Posted on 10/01/2008 2:08:42 PM PDT by JerseyHighlander
IRAN 2015
Scenario One: Containment
U.S.-Led Coalition Contains Iran
By 2012, the United States has organized a regional coalition to contain Iran,
modeled to some degree on experience gained dealing with the Soviet Union.
Isolation and external pressure towards the emergence of an Iranian
“Gorbachev”—someone the West can do business with—is the long-term goal. page 6
Scenario Two: Balance of Power
U.S. Drawdown from Iraq Triggers
Middle East Balance of Power Dynamic
Acknowledging that the Iraq experiment has failed, the U.S. withdraws the
majority of its troops and accepts a diminished military and political presence
in the region. Regional players are forced to both balance and engage Iran,
thereby protecting their sovereignty and limiting the damage from terrorism. page 13
Scenario Three: Engagement
U.S. Engages Iran
A U.S.-Iran engagement defuses the confrontation over Iran’s nuclear program
and its role in Iraq, and acknowledges Iran’s regional interests in exchange for
increased stability in Iraq and international cooperation. page 20
This CGA Iran Scenarios workshop, conducted on January 25, 2008, was the
second of what we expect to be many such events designed to reduce surprise
and expand U.S. foreign policy options. Too often, in both offcial and academic
policy debates, the future is expected to parallel the recent past. Potential
discontinuities are dismissed as implausible, information that conficts with
prevailing mindsets is unseen or viewed as anomalous, pressure for consensus
drives out distinctive insights, and a fear of being ‘wrong’ discourages risk-
taking and innovative analysis. Too much good thinking falls to the cutting
room foor, while consensus coalesces around lowest common denominator
extrapolations of recent data, or around the policy commitments of ‘clients.’
This built-in conservatism can artifcially restrict policy options and reduce
foreign policy choice.
The CGA Scenarios project aims to apply imagination to debates about global
conditions that affect U.S. interests. The project will assemble the combination
of knowledge, detachment and futures perspective essential to informing
decisions taken in the presence of uncertainty. The project will comprise long
term research on forces for change in the international system and workshops
attended by experts and policy makers from diverse felds and viewpoints.
The workshops will examine the results of current research, create alternative
scenarios, identify potential surprises, and test current and alternative policies
against these futures.
This CGA Scenarios publication is the second of a series of occasional papers
intended to disseminate the results of the project’s workshops and research
in the form of new insights that can serve as forces for change, and present
alternative scenarios, policy impacts, and options.
Michael Oppenheimer, the founder of the project, has organized over thirty
conferences devoted to scenario development and foreign policy analysis for the
State Department, the Defense Department, the National Intelligence Council,
the Central Intelligence Agency, the U.S. Institute of Peace, the Brookings
Institution, the Council on Foreign Relations, the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, the
Hart Rudman Commission and the Presidents Science Advisor. He is a professor
at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU.
NYT@NYU: U.S.-Iran Relations
Michael F. Oppenheimer with guest presenters David E. Sanger and Helene Cooper
The national debate on Iran will polarize as the presidential campaign nears its climax: should we engage Iran, or confront it? This polarization glosses over the uncertainties of Iranian power and intentions, as well as the difficult decisions and trade offs among conflicting interests facing the U.S. These four online interactive sessions are offered collaboratively by the New York Times and the CGA. Participate live by sending in questions and comments during the sessions, and return to the archived classes at your leisure. This course is especially targeted toward anyone who wants to examine U.S. interactions with Iran in the company of journalists expert in diplomatic and security issues. Participants will engage with topics including:
Security priorities (W.M.D. proliferation, the threat of terrorism, the security of Israel, and relationships with allies and rising powers) Iranian capabilities and intentions Iranian domestic politics U.S. power and credibility in the Middle East Allies and emerging challengers to U.S. primacy The role of existing global institutions such as the U.N., the I.A.E.A. and NATO
Michael F. Oppenheimer is an expert on international conflict, global economics, US-European relations and national security strategy. For the past decade, he has worked for Washington foreign-policy makers and intelligence officials on a range of strategic work and is credited with expanding the use of scenarios and alternative analyses in the US intelligence estimate process. He has conducted a workshop for The Brookings Institution on legitimacy and the potential use of force against Iran. He is a US delegate for a track two dialogue with Iranian experts, sponsored by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. He is a fellow at the Institute for Homeland Security and consults to the Department of Homeland Security on future threats and US strategies.
The Guest Presenters:
David E. Sanger, chief Washington correspondent for The New York Times Helene Cooper, diplomatic correspondent for The New York Times Vali Nasr, adjunct senior fellow, Middle Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations Gary Samore, vice president, director of studies, Maurice R. Greenberg Chair, Council on Foreign Relations Gary Sick, senior research scholar, Middle East Institute and adjunct professor, international affairs, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
Program Details October 6 - November 2, 2008
Live Online Sessions: Wednesday, October 8 | 6:30 PM, EST (with Helene Cooper) Wednesday, October 15 | 6:30 PM, EST Wednesday, October 22 | 6:30 PM, EST Wednesday, October 29 | 6:30 PM, EST (with David Sanger) * All live sessions are archived for reference at your convenience.
Price: $250
http://www.nytimesknownow.com/personal-enrichment/politics/us-iran-relations.html
FARS, for your ping list,
G8 Diplomat, for your perusal.
Thanks to you both for the ping lists you maintain.
One note:
For those on the Middle East and Iran ping lists, there isn’t much new info, for those who do not closely follow and want to find a concise look at the Iranian regime’s future, this is a decent starting point for further reading.
Thanks for the ping. Interesting. However, I’d add a Scenario Five: CIA stirs up Iranian students and dissenters who overthrow the Iranian regime from within.
We did that when Muhammad Mossagdeh was in power and got the Shah back on the throne; we managed to get the civilians in Guatemala(?) to overthrow the communist regime during the Cold War....maybe we should try it again in Iran today. However, the time to get it done before Iran gets a nuke is very limited.
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