Posted on 09/30/2008 3:45:49 PM PDT by Chet 99
Barack Obama maintains an advantage on the economy, especially economic empathy, and he's cracked majority acceptance on his key challenge, experience. But the political center remains unrooted, keeping John McCain in the race, albeit against headwinds.
Movement continues among independents, quintessential swing voters and a highly changeable group this year.
They favored McCain by 10 points immediately after the Republican convention, swung to Obama last week and stand now at a close division between the two -- 48 percent for McCain, 45 percent for Obama in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.
Click here for a PDF with charts and full questionnaire.
Preference among likely voters overall is 50-46 percent, Obama-McCain, a bit closer (albeit within sampling error) than the 52-43 percent last week.
The race between them is up for grabs as long as movables -- independents and others less rooted in partisan allegiance -- remain unswayed by either candidate.
-snip-
METHODOLOGY:This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 27-29, 2008, among a random sample of 1,271 adults, including an oversample of African Americans (weighted to their correct share of the national population), for a total of 165 black respondents. Results among the 1,070 registered voters and 916 likely voters surveyed have a 3-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
Nothing matters except the Battleground states.
I don’t think anybody outside the most hardened obamatrons believed that 52-43 garbage
If McCain is within 6 pts on election eve he’ll walk away with it.
What many people don’t realize is that most polls undersample Republicans and oversample Democrats.
A good rule of tumb is to take the Dem donw 2 points and raise the Repub 2 points.
So, this poll would be tied.
Additionally. since Obama is in the presidentuial race, the Bradley Effect must be included.
Take Obama down 2-3 points and raise McCain 2-3 points.
McCain 50/51, Obama 46/45 is where I would put this poll.
The same goes for battleground polls.
bttt
I like your math.
Agreed. This is all about the battlegrounds.
It is essentially a statistical impossibility for the electoral college to go to go to a candidate with more than a 3% popular vote deficit.
But this may be a year in which that limit could be approached (in either direction).
More plausible is an essentially tied popular vote, and a lopsided electoral vote (300+ for victor) if the battlegrounds all go the same way.
Independents favor McCain 48 to 45.
This means that all the polls including this one showing McCain behind are a lie.
McCain is getting a percentage of Clinton voters.
He is getting better support among his base than Obama’s.
This is all vote suppression and base suppression.
Obama leads in “economic empathy”. I can’t believe people vote on “economic empathy”. “Economic empathy” doesn’t keep the economy going so that you keep your job and get to feed your kids. Sound economic policy, coupled with leadership, does.
What, are we going to elect a president whose policies cause us to lose our jobs, but we’ll be glad because he’s empathetic? We have totally lost our minds.
Let me explain it.
When Bush pushed the bailout starting two to three weeks ago stating how bad the economy is, Obama and the Dems rose in the polls. When Obama took the public forefront of being for the $700 billion dollar bailout over the past week, his polling fell. But really, it’s just Americans being more honest about their racism to the pollsters, nothing to do with the bailout.
something is going on internally in the country that is bringing back support to McCain the last 72 hours. I think its a healthy fear and unease on Obama...he just cant seem to close the deal, even in a very bad news cycle for McCain.
imagine how they had to purse these results to get 50-46!
.
Agree.
McCain is 5 points down in all polls...and it “feels” like he is 5 pts. down.
But Obama has NOT closed the deal, and if Nov. 4th comes around and it is still this close, undecideds will go with the guy they know.
(And of course racist whitey will put McCain over the top, too/sarc)
I can’t wait to see the headlines about this poll in Drive By Media.
Can you see it?
‘McCain Rebound?”
I can’t wait to see the headlines about this poll in Drive By Media.
Can you see it?
‘McCain Rebound?”
this is actually better than it looks
look deeper and you will find that this poll has Obama 48 McCain 45 of likely voters.
no indication of party affiliation but....
poll was conducted by telephone
Sept. 27-29, 2008, among a random sample of 1,271 adults, including an oversample of African Americans (weighted to their correct share of the national population), for a total
of 165 black respondents. Results among the 1,070registered voters and 916 likely voters surveyed have a 3-point error margin.
it was pretty clear that the 9 was an outlier and the great one has a 4 or 5 point lead not a 9. lets see how the msm reports it since they wet themselves over the last one
Interesting. RCP is showing a slight trend back up for McCain also.
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