it is the only poll that is using historical measures of actual turnout for determining it’s Dem to GOP mix.”
Of course, we don’t know if past performance will be the same this time....the D’s sure are investing a lot in their “ground game” and they swear up and down they they have registered millions and will get them out....who knows?
That true, but we read history for a reason - it often repeats itself. Over the past five Presidential elections, the greatest gap between Democrats and Republicans favored Democrats by 4 points, 39-35. That was in 1996, when Clinton actually won by 8 points, 48-41.
Perhaps there will be a tidal wave of new Democrats showing up to vote; in fact, that is the only assumption that would make the Gallup or Rassmussen numbers accurate. I doubt it, highly.