I didn't go through the slide presentation, but from what little I read I the article, the whole scenario is unrealistic to the extreme. It doesn't take into account the intel that we would have as to China's buildup. There are things that they must do well in advance to pull off something like that; that would give us plenty of lead time to have at least 3 carrier groups - with all their hornets - in place, plus have all the bases in Korea and Japan built up and ready with tons of F16s and F15s. Heck, if this is in 2020, then we'll have the JSF available too. That's just off the top of my head. The writer obviously just wondered what a 6 v 72 dogfight would look like, and then dreamed up a ludicrous scenario to fit it that isn't based in reality beyond the fact that China has SU-27s. He obviously has absolutely no clue as to how air battles are run and all the assets that are brought to bear.Upon deeper reflection, he's equating Chinese pilots to USAF pilots when there is absolutely no comparison. The tactics each side employs are as different as night and day. As soon as we take down their command and control network with some well placed cruise missiles (something that would happen early) then the few flankers that did get airborne would be completely lost because they are highly GCI (Ground Controlled Intercept) dependent and require ground radar to chose and guide them to their targets.
Don't even get me started on the logistics and time required to launch and marshal 72 aircraft without the benefit of aerial refueling - something the Chinese have tried, but are no good at and don't have the tankers to support it.
I'd better stop or I'll go on all day.
Gee ... those are pretty big assumptions. I might suggest to your brother that overconfidence in the inabilities of his adversaries is not an optimal approach.
Don't even get me started on the logistics and time required to launch and marshal 72 aircraft without the benefit of aerial refueling - something the Chinese have tried, but are no good at and don't have the tankers to support it.
Manned spaceflight used to be beyond them, too.
Now, your brother is obviously closer to the topic than I am, but I can't help wondering if he's not just a bit too dismissive of the Chinese. Especially given that any war we fight against them will be a) closer to China; and b) long.
I think if he's even just a little bit wrong, the F22's qualitative superiority may not prevent losses; and as losses occur, they will be hard to replace; and the Chinese will continue to inflict losses.
As for me, I'd sure feel better if we had a crap-load more available airframes than we actually do.
While this whole scenario is inaccurate in most respects, your brother is off the mark on some comments- the
Chinese don’t need tankers if they are deploying SU-27s. They barely need to cross the Taiwan straits to unload their missiles and the SU-27 is a long range machine. The F-22 (if it were deploying from Guam) is at an obvious disadvantage on that front.If this whole thing were to happen in 2020-the PRC would have plenty of tankers and AWACS to play around with. They are already buying from the Russians or developing indigenous programmes. And their training while still inferior has improved considerably. They’ve learnt the lessons of Iraq and Yugoslavia better than most folks.