The ‘29 crash bottomed in 1933...it was an ‘L’ shaped depression, interupted by the war, and did not have the confirmed ‘uptick’ until 1947. In the depression the govt, and, the Fed Reserve were not broke..they are now. We were industrialized and could produce labor valued products...no longer. A depression now will be ‘L’ shaped also for a much longer period of time. Since 1971 we have been a ‘debt Capitalist’ economy, meaning that all money in circulation must be borrowed. We cannot borrow very much now or in the future. Hyperinflation will go along with the deflation we are experiencing now. The housing bottom has to occur later than 2011 when the last Alt As peak...along with prime mortgages, a problem 5 times bigger than the sub primes. Outlook, world depression unavoidable...tens and humdreds of trillions in derivative defaults cannot be dealt with by billions. Hedge fund redemptions begin in earnest in Dec., then every quarter to follow. Trillions will be attempted to be redeemed from hedge funds in 2009 to no avail. Hedge funds are completely unregulated worldwide and cannot meet redemption demands. The SECs Cox, notes that regulation of the credit default swap derivatives mus occur IMMEDIATELY (they are about $62 trillion of the worldwide over Quadrillion credit derivative instruments)...lots of luck. Lehman Bros. was the dominant investment bank related to credit default swaps....such swaps are now known to be probably valueless as there is no market if they have to be liquidated. What people do not realize is that Paulsons proposal is to bail out foreign banks also, and that Fortis Bank in England is bankrupting this weekend. The Brit PM Brown is in the US now, if he has not already returned to Britain, requesting $100 billion from Paulson from the Bailout Bill, when passed, to bail out Britains acute need NOW...I do not know the result.
As you said, the 'wave' is devouring everything in the financial marketplace. Paulson can't stop it no matter what. If he's not careful, he will exacerbate the problem greatly by inadvertently causing more defaults.
“What people do not realize is that Paulsons proposal is to bail out foreign banks also, and that Fortis Bank in England is bankrupting this weekend.”
Correction: Fortis is incorrect. Bradford and Bingley is the correct English bank. Fortis, a huge Belgian Bank, is failing this weekend also.
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I heard today there was a run on the Fortis BAnk.