If Tuesday was a +7 day for Obama and Rasmussen has Obama up +5 then the other two days must total +8 don’t they? If so, then the +7 point day dropping off may not make too much of a difference to the overall rolling average (it may drop O’s lead to +3).
For example:
Tue: O +7
Wed: O +4?
Thur: O +4?
Avg: O +5
Assume that once tuesday drops off it is replaced by an Obama +1 then the rolling average would be O +3. Where am I wrong?
You are pretty close to where I am. I had Wednesday as O+3 and last night as O+5. So, in Rasmussen Obama is up by about three points.
Incidentally, it does seem like Obama really did win last night’s polling because he also had a good night in the Gallup poll. This just confirms that as long as this bailout issue remains unresolved, Obama is going to benefit, at least in the short term.