Rasmussen 9/26/08: Obama 50% McCain 45%

Rasmussen Daily Tracking ^

[pgkdan]

McCain is in the midst of the single most brilliant, game-changing maneuver in modern political history and some here are freakin’ ‘cause of one aberrant poll!

We're surrounded by ninnies and cry babies who won't think for themselvess. That's what's going on around here. People need to step away from their keyboards and hit the sidewalks for McCain/Palin this weekend! That's what I'll be doing.

McCain is proving himself a very capable leader...not to mention courageous. Obama is a talker...actually a whiner. There will be a deal because there has to be a deal and when it's done McCain will be a rock star.

[avacado]

"It is all about turnout, turnout, turnout, and nothing more. Which side is more motivated to go to the polls. Our side *is* motivated."

Agreed! It's the motivation factor that the polls cannot measure. And I believe the Republicans & Conservatives are hyper motivated to make sure that a Communist doesn't enter the White House.

[comebacknewt]

I ten d to agree with ytou but Zogby, Gallup and the Battleground Tracking Poll have all been showing movement to McCain this week. rasmussen is the only fly in the ointment.

Rasmussen's polls oddly lag behind the other tracking polls.

He was later than everyone else in showing the bounces for each candidate after the conventions. I think what we are seeing now is him being late showing the lead Obama opened up last week after the bad economic news first broke.

Lets see if he doesn't show McCain making significant improvements as we head into next week like everyone else is currently showing.

[KavMan]

So let’s see what happens tomorrow. Since posters are saying +5 rolled off for McCain and there is a +11 for Obama that’s going to roll off....

[latina4dubya]

McCain is in the midst of the single most brilliant, game-changing maneuver in modern political history and some here are freakin’ ‘cause of one aberrant poll!

without communication, the average person may very well not see this as brilliant... they may not get it at all... he needs to speak to the people... don't leave them speculating... he's not even letting SP speak to the people... no ads... i can see that he's not able to campaign personally, but to stop the campaing completely makes very little sense to me... but if he has reason for stopping it completely, he needs to communicate those reasons... oh--but he can't because he's completely stopped his campaign...

if i were SP, i would be mad... she's in this to win... she's had to leave Alaska, go throough all the media crap about her daughter, and she's had to take personal abuse from the media, only to now stand back while Obama gains in the polls because the average American (non FReepers) don't know what's going on...

[latina4dubya]

That day drops off tomorrow.

every time i follow a thread about a poll, someone says that Obama's good day will drop off tomorrow... however, it doesn't seem to change anything... i may be wrong, but i have that perspective... McCain is not having any really good polling days...

[nclaurel]

Hope you don’t have your head handed to you for pointing out what is obvious to many who read here frequently. There are some posters who ONLY post when polls are poor for McCain and seem to ONLY have discouraging things to. As I posted yesterday everyone is affected by these polls and concerned at times but if that is the only time you show up to post, it isn’t helpful. This is still Sept. and the election isn’t over regardless of polls.

[kesg]

every time i follow a thread about a poll, someone says that Obama's good day will drop off tomorrow... however, it doesn't seem to change anything.

Sometimes it does, and sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes a good day is replaced with an even better day. We don't know that until we actually see the next day's poll.

But it is extremely rare in Rasmussen's poll for any one candidate to poll 7 points (my calculation) to 11 points (somoene else's cauclation) better than the other candidate in a single day. This happens in all polls approximately 5% of the time. Something like this apparently happened in Obama's favor on Tuesday night in Rasmussen's poll. If it was a real trend rather than statistical noise, we would have expected to see the same thing in other contemperaneous polls, but no such thing happened.

[tatown]

If Tuesday was a +7 day for Obama and Rasmussen has Obama up +5 then the other two days must total +8 don’t they? If so, then the +7 point day dropping off may not make too much of a difference to the overall rolling average (it may drop O’s lead to +3).

For example:

Tue: O +7
Wed: O +4?
Thur: O +4?

Avg: O +5

Assume that once tuesday drops off it is replaced by an Obama +1 then the rolling average would be O +3. Where am I wrong?

[tatown]

If Tuesday was a +7 day for Obama and Rasmussen has Obama up +5 then the other two days must total +8 don’t they? If so, then the +7 point day dropping off may not make too much of a difference to the overall rolling average (it may drop O’s lead to +3).

For example:

Tue: O +7
Wed: O +4?
Thur: O +4?

Avg: O +5

Assume that once tuesday drops off it is replaced by an Obama +1 then the rolling average would be O +3. Where am I wrong?

[Sam Spade]

Just to help a touch. The samples are roughly:

WED: O+10
THU: O+6
FRI: M+1

The sample that dropped off today was M+5, roughly.

[ncalburt]

Thanks , I could care less .
Now , we know why many countries ban there media from conducting polls 30 to 60 days before an election !
These polls are mostly bad guess work or Propaganda tools by the very biased media and/or pollsters .

[CatOwner]

... and Gallup has them even and seems to be trending toward McCain ...

Looks like I spoke too soon. Gallup has Obama +3 today.

[kesg]

You are pretty close to where I am. I had Wednesday as O+3 and last night as O+5. So, in Rasmussen Obama is up by about three points.

Incidentally, it does seem like Obama really did win last night’s polling because he also had a good night in the Gallup poll. This just confirms that as long as this bailout issue remains unresolved, Obama is going to benefit, at least in the short term.

[kesg]

“WED: O+10
THU: O+6
FRI: M+1”

What is your source for these numbers? Thanks.

[Earthdweller]

BS...they are trying to scare everyone into this bailout. It's crap and everyone on capital hill has their hands in it, just like they all had their hands in Fannie Freddie. We have a global Monarchy folks. It's us against them when they want to enslave our children with this atrocious scam.Tell China to pony up the money...leave us the h@ll alone.

I'm not voting for either of these candidates if they let people get raped across the globe.

[tatown]

It seems that whatever has happened lately, Obama has benefitted. This seems to fly in the fact of “70%” of the public being against the bailout yet McCain is being hurt for standing against it.

[Earthdweller]

The polls are total crap. These guys get paid big bucks to play the game of ripping of the sheeple.

[kesg]

It seems that whatever has happened lately, Obama has benefitted. This seems to fly in the fact of “70%” of the public being against the bailout yet McCain is being hurt for standing against it.

The plan fact is that as long as the financial crisis continues, Obama will benefit and McCain will lose. Obama had great polling nights in Rasmussen and Gallup last night because the deal (for better or worse) didn't get done. That's the bad news. The good news is that this crisis is going to get resolved sooner or later -- and I am talking days if not hours, not weeks. The potentially even better news is that because of what happened yesterday, the final bill may end up being better, or at least less unpopular, than the mostly Democratic version that was floating around yesterday.

[Mila]

“BTW, has Rassmussen posted a poll showing the opposition to the bailout, no.”

Ask and you shall receive:)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/general_business/just_30_think_government_should_bail_out_the_markets