>> Likewise, Obama must be leading nationally by about 3-4 points (actually slightly more) to have a real shot at Colorado
Why? In CO, Obama is running ahead of his national numbers. At least 1% ahead, it seems. He is favored to win CO (and thus the EC majority) if we have a replay of 2000, and the national vote numbers are close.
Here is why I think McCain is in slightly better shape in CO than current polls might suggest:
In 2004, Bush defeated Kerry by 4.67% in Colorado, compared to 2.4% nationally. In addition, Colorado is the type of state where a Western state Republican like McCain is going to do better than a Republican like Bush. In addition, Colorado is notorious for voting more Republican than it polls. So, that’s why I say Oama needs to be leading nationally by 3 points or more to have a real shot at Colorado.