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To: kesg

>> Likewise, Obama must be leading nationally by about 3-4 points (actually slightly more) to have a real shot at Colorado

Why? In CO, Obama is running ahead of his national numbers. At least 1% ahead, it seems. He is favored to win CO (and thus the EC majority) if we have a replay of 2000, and the national vote numbers are close.


83 posted on 09/24/2008 8:07:24 AM PDT by ubaldus
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To: ubaldus

Here is why I think McCain is in slightly better shape in CO than current polls might suggest:

In 2004, Bush defeated Kerry by 4.67% in Colorado, compared to 2.4% nationally. In addition, Colorado is the type of state where a Western state Republican like McCain is going to do better than a Republican like Bush. In addition, Colorado is notorious for voting more Republican than it polls. So, that’s why I say Oama needs to be leading nationally by 3 points or more to have a real shot at Colorado.


88 posted on 09/24/2008 8:28:18 AM PDT by kesg
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