Posted on 09/24/2008 3:21:50 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
U.S. Intelligence: N.K. Leader`s Brother to Take Over
SEPTEMBER 24, 2008 08:59
U.S. intelligence says Jang Song Taek, the brother-in-law of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, will take over if Kim falls seriously ill or dies, sources in Seoul and Washington said yesterday.
U.S. intelligence analyzed who will replace Kim and if North Korea can maintain political stability under three scenarios: Kim has physical instead of mental problems; Kim cannot recover consciousness for a long time; and his death. A report on this was sent to the South Korean presidential office of Cheong Wa Dae, National Intelligence Service and other security agencies via the South Korean Embassy in Washington.
One diplomat said, “U.S. intelligence says Kim’s brother-in-law Jang Song Taek and Kim Ok, a senior member of the National Defense Commission who is considered Kim Jong Il’s de facto wife, will take over if Kim Jong Il has only physical disabilities.”
No new leaders will come to power as long as Kim Jong Il is alive even if he cannot recover consciousness for a long time, the report said. Intense competition among political groups is also expected to complicate the process of leadership succession and raise uncertainty.
A group of political leaders could share leadership but Jang, who has close ties with senior military officials, is likely to hold real power if Kim Jong Il dies.
While visiting London, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said last Thursday that Washington has closely watched developments in North Korea, and that all of the North’s neighbors are concerned over instability since a collapse could spark a flood of refugees.
Seoul might believe that the U.S. suggestion of three scenarios is evidence that Washington has yet to obtain accurate information on Kim Jong Il’s health. South Korea, however, is expected to consider the three scenarios to prepare itself for contingencies.
The U.S. Congress will summon officials from departments dealing with North Korea and hold a hearing on possible developments and responses if Kim is confirmed to be ill.
Ping!
How is it that Dear Leader doesn’t have a clear succession plan already detailed out? I would think he would have appointed an heir apparent several years ago.
Nothing like designating your own assassin.
If you appoint the person too early, sure. But doing so in the past few years wouldn’t be to bad. Maybe his death would be hastened if he was in a comma state. But a clear succession breeds stability. Granted who wants stability in NK? Obviously the optimum would be the NK state failing and ROK taking it over. But China wouldn’t want that.
Too many wannabes involved in the succession. This will be messy.
Fasten your seatbelts, Free Republic.
Dare I ask if the person is male or female? A penname or surname?
New developments are on the horizon, though. It's clear that there is reliable HUMINT now coming out of North Korea. Either we or the North Koreans are getting it directly, or some other entity is getting it, and we're hitting them with SIGINT. This information is flowing much faster and reliably than every before.
I suspect that the freer flow of information indicates that there is high level factionalism going on. Elements of the high elite that are seeking outside connections. Given how tightly wound and secretive they are, this may be a hard trend to reverse. Especially as there are number of outside advantages to be obtained, in power brokering, technology transfers, and economic development. Reaching outside is an indication the elites are looking at a post-Kim future.
Due to unseen internal unraveling, the DPRK may be closer to a 1989 than we realize.
According to some reports, thanks to her patronage, Pyongyang Symphony Orchestra is becoming prominent, eclipsing other art and performance groups.
Could you please comment on the possibility of a military take over of the country? Your own opinions would be sufficient.
One would think that the people with the guns are in a better position to ‘settle’ succession disputes.
Military leadership has been divided up and constantly on short leash, being watched all the time. It is next to impossible to move troops big enough to engineer a military takeover without being detected in advance. Besides, Kim Jong-il has his own security troops of substantial size, a kind of N. Korean version of Romanian Securitate. It can put up a stiff fight.
If any military branch becomes a powerful political force, it is said to be this security troops under 'General Bureau of Guards'(Howi Chong-guk) rather than regular military.
These communists act like 14th century European royalty at times like this...when the king is dead, grab power and kill all your relatives.
Would be something if Chia Pet decided to whack their own uncle
OH great like Condi Rice or Yoko Ono LOL!
Bump.
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