Or, perhaps oversimplifying, reduce the nine point spread by 60%, representing the difference between the 10 point Dem lead in the poll to a 4 point Dem lead reflecting a much more realistic spread based on past election data in Presidential elecitons. This translates to a 3-4 point lead, which is probably much closer to what it actually was during the four days that were polled (9/18-9/21).
another error here that i have been thinking about...
the over sample here of the black voters runs along the lines of BLACK POPULATION percentage (16-18%) not a traditional breakdown of the voting electorate...
this poll is a laugher....