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To: swarthyguy
In reality, what Pakistan intelligence and the military say goes, no one gives a hoot about the Pakistan Government. But US cannot have it both ways: pretending it has the cooperation of the government and the people, when all it has is the cooperation of Pakistani intel double-gamers who are helping to kill American troops in Afghanistan with one hand, while with the other hand they accept handsome payments courtesy of the US taxpayers to help the Americans.

The writer has correctly noted that the Pakistanis play a double game.

We also are forced to play a double or triple game. We can't occupy the country, we are stretched far too thin for that.

In a sense, Iraq was relatively simple. The forces there can be counted on one's fingers. It may take both hands, but the forces there are countable.

In Afghanistan we did not attempt a Russian-style invasion, instead we inserted ourselves into the country and allied ourselves with various indigenous forces already existing there. In some ways this is what we finally did in Iraq as part of the so-called surge.

It could be that to be successful in Pakistan we must do something similar; identify forces whose aims are such that we can ally with them. Until now we've been trying to treat them like a real country, dealing with the various institutions of government, carefully respecting their sovereignty. We may have moved past that now. If the formal government can't help us in Waziristan, or actively betrays us in Waziristan, maybe we need to be forming our own relationships with Waziris as we did in Afghanistan with the Northern Alliance. Find war-lords who for reasons of their own need an ally with connections, and offer to help them achieve their ambitions.

Will that annoy Islamabad? Of course. So we have to do the same thing there, which is to form our own relationships with the various component parts that make up the government. If the government doesn't really control the country, you have to deal with those who do. And if the ones who do control it are allied with the baddies, you have to identify forces in the country who could counter-balance them. And offer them your help.

India has a role to play in all this; they have their own intelligence sources. And they have consented to help us play "good-cop-bad-cop" in Pakistan from time to time, allowing us to be the kindly old cop who keeps the big Indian cop from threatening poor Pakistan.

Unless India is prepared to dismantle Pakistan and swallow it whole, I don't see much alternative to the present game other than to get very much better at it.

24 posted on 09/23/2008 11:38:00 AM PDT by marron
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To: marron

There was a report than Indian nuclear armed Sukhoi’s had been moved into Kashmir. Squeeze play maybe.

Sadly, India does not really have a longterm strategic vision for PostPakistan.

Yugoslav it - Pakistani Punjabis have started pining for India, where the Punjabi language has not been superseded by Urdu.

Many Pakistani artists move to India to advance their careers as performers in Bollywood.

The Durand Line should be abolished, and one of the great crimes of the British, seperating the Pathan people into Pak and Afghanistan should be rectified.

Other regions of Pakistan like Sindh could become statelets or absorbed into India.

Baluchistan, which was never supposed to be a part of Pakistan after Partition, could, if independent be one of the largest producers of gas, perhaps even oil in the world. Their compatriots in Iran may welcome that.

But, what’s encouraging is the attitude of the US Army towards Pakistani double talk. They sound just like the Indian Army in Kashmir!


25 posted on 09/23/2008 11:53:38 AM PDT by swarthyguy ( I assume that she wants to be treated the same way that guys want -Obama.)
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