I would like to see PA lead in the Congressional switch back to the GOP. In 2006, four districts (4, 7, 8, and 10) all switched from GOP to Dem. The GOP has a good chance of picking back up at least a couple of these and could be more competitive in long-time Dem. Districts 11 & 12 this time. Districts 4, 10, 11, and 12 are largely made up of socially conservative blue-collar voters, while Districts 7 & 8 consist of largely white collar suburbanites. District 8 especially tends to have more socially liberal voters.
Although I've been focusing on GOP pick-up opportunities, just in the past week or so I found some unexpected good news in another PA race. Jim Gerlach (R, PA-6) has had incredibly close races the past two or three elections, just barely hanging onto his district in/around the Philly suburbs. I had assumed he was at the top of the Dems' target list again this year.
But that appears to not be the case. His campaign released an internal (GOP, obviously) poll from mid August, before the Palin explosion. Gerlach was leading at that time by more than 20 points. And on 30 June he had about three times the money his challenger had (approx. $750K to $250K) in a district Kerry won with 52%. This news can't be helpful to the Obamessiah's quest to carry PA.
Did you include Lou Barletta in this calculation?