Wisconsin has been trending liberal more than the other States listed and Southeast Wisconsin (the most dense population area) is smack-dab in the middle of the Chicago media market. That makes Obama almost a “native son” in Madison.
No, Wisconsin will only flip if McCain is strong enough to flip Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
It’s not trending more liberal though. It was closer for Bush in 2004, than in 2000. Being in the Chicago media market doesn’t help McCain, this is true.
So how do you account for the fact that Bush ran better in WI in both 2000 and 2004 than he did in PA, MI, and MN? Bush lost in WI by less than 4 tenths of a percent in 2004 and 2 tenths of a percent in 2000.
No, Wisconsin will only flip if McCain is strong enough to flip Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
No, if you look at the historical data, it is the other way around. MN has not gone Rep since 1960. If MI, MN, and PA flib, then WI will surely change, not the other way around.