I agree with CO. Bambi’s strategy is dependent on taking IA, NM, and CO out of the red column. He will probably succeed with IA and NM; if he fails with CO, we should be sitting pretty.
Obama takes back Iowa and New Mexico. McCain takes back New Hampshire. If it happens, McCain would win 278 - 260.
NH now looks very iffy, but the only other state of major concern is Colorado. I keep expecting it to drift back to the GOP, but it has been very resistant.
One of the things I keep taking comfort in is that Republicans have the most registrations in Colorado followed by Independents and then Democrats. If McCain wins the Indies (and he has a very good chance of doing that), then the only way Obama wins the state is to either get a HUGE Democrat turnout or else win more Republicans than McCain wins Democrats.
Pretty tall order for him. In the end, I still think McCain hangs on in Colorado and with it wins a narrow Electoral College victory in November.