Posted on 09/17/2008 4:02:34 PM PDT by Anti-Hillary
The Siena poll, one of the two key polls of New York state voters, has come out with its monthly snapshot of the presidential race in the Empire State. And it’s stunning. It is remarkable, though not eye-opening, that John McCain is now only 5 points behind Barack Obama, 46-41 – not shocking because polls have narrowed to similar margins in New Jersey. (It should be noted, however, that according to a Rasmussen poll released yesterday, Obama is leading in New York by 55-42.)
No, the shocking detail has to do with a wild, 35-point swing toward McCain among Jewish voters. Obama led among them by a margin of 50-37 in August. This month, McCain is actually leading Obama by a margin of 54 percent to 32 percent.
Siena polled 626 likely voters this month. Of those, according to Steve Greenberg, the spokesman for the Siena poll, 77 were Jews, or 12 percent of the sample. That is Siena’s best guess of the size of the Jewish vote in New York state in November. With a sample size that small, the margin of error for the Jewish voter sample is plus-or-minus 11 points.
That means the poll could be off by as many as 11 points in either direction — i.e., McCain could be leading by as little as 11 points or by as many as 33.
The only difference between the September poll and the August poll as a matter of methodology is that in September, Siena polled likely voters, whereas in August it only polled registered voters.
The poll could, of course, be an outlier. But if it even begins to approximate the truth, it is huge news. No Republican has scored more than 39 percent of the Jewish vote in modern times, and that was Ronald Reagan in 1980, following a series of missteps by the Carter administration. These sorts of numbers for McCain have implications in two other states particularly — Florida and Pennsylvania.
In Florida, the implications are obvious. Obama’s own Jewish organizers in Florida are telling the campaign they are finding profound resistance to him, particularly in South Florida. The polling overall there seems to be moving inexorably in McCain’s direction, which is necessary for him; it is nearly impossible to see how he can win the election if he loses Florida.
But what about Pennsylvania? That is a state it appears Obama must win. There are, it is estimated, more than 200,000 Jewish voters in Pennsylvania, a state John Kerry won by 140,000 votes. If we assume Pennsylvania’s 200,000 voting Jews voted in the same way as Jews nationwide in 2004 and went 76-24 for Kerry, we can attribute 150,000 Jewish votes to Kerry, his entire margin of victory plus seven percent. Now imagine if that number had been closer to 50-50. Kerry would have received 100,000 Jewish votes rather than 150,000. Bush would have received 100,000 Jewish votes rather than 50,000. Kerry’s margin of victory would then have shrunk to 40,000 votes.
It appears Obama may have a tougher time in Pennsylvania than Kerry did because of his difficulty attracting the ethnic white vote in the western part of the state. If there is a Jewish swing away from him as well, he really could lose there. And if he loses there and loses Ohio, he is sunk. Ohio has approximately 80,000 Jewish voters, so a swing away from Obama to a 50-50 race would cost him 25,000 votes Kerry presumably received in 2004 — and in a state that Bush won by 121,000 votes.
We’ll need more data from two other states with a significant Jewish population to allow for a measurable sample size in a poll – Florida and California – and a polling firm willing to break out the Jewish vote as Siena has, to see whether this is just statistical smoke or whether Obama has a brushfire he needs to put out somehow before it consumes him.
My Father was Haganah and because his disgust with American Jews , I don’t for one nano-second believe this story.
Apparently only about 30% of Jews think voting for an antisemitic crypto-muslim is a smart thing to do.
...and blanket statements are a sign of stupidity.
In many ways, so is McCain.
A lot of us Jews are not “liberal”, at least not any more.
Barack is a threat to America, to Israel, and to world freedom.
We recognize this though some fellow braindead brethren don’t.
From four generations of Jews serving America (WW1, WW2, Vietnam, Iraq)
bttt
I am not surprised by this poll; several college acquaintances who were Jewish belonged to a group called YPSL-Young People's
Socialist League. They supported Scoop Jackson because of his support of Jews in the Soviet Union.
I suspect these now middle aged men and women although very liberal on social issues would be quite worried about an Obama presidency. His friends Ayers and Dorhn and their ilk have had close ties to the PLO and pro Palestine groups for at least thirty years.
Let’s remember that it was George Stephanopoulous who corrected Obama on his “misstatement”, not Obama himself. Added to Reverend Wright’s hate filled church, Obama’s upbringing, and more recent pictures and stories about him reciting the call to prayer flawlessly, it is difficult to believe that Obama is being entirely forthright about what his religious beliefs are. Only Obama knows for sure what he believes, but it is difficult to believe what he says considering all this. Any thoughtful and even halfway observant person of the Christian or Jewish faith has to realize this.
The sample size here is just too small to put too much importance behind this poll.
One of my father’s friends at work (in New York) is Jewish and is about as liberal as it gets. He and his wife are not supporting Obama; they’re basically scared of him from what I’m told. I doubt they’re alone in thinking that.
I can pass along my observations from suburban Philadelphia. We’re in Montgomery County, in a township which is probably ~40% Jewish. I’m not seeing as many Obama yard signs as I’ve seen Gore, Kerry or Hillary signs in the past. McCain signs are popping up in encouraging numbers. I take nothing for granted, but I’m encouraged. Obama’s campaign headquarters is about 1/2 mile away on a main street, while McCain’s is about a 15 minute drive from here, in a new location, tucked away on an odd street. Somehow, people are managing to get their hands on McCain signs despite inconvenience. I’m happy to see it.
Oy vey! Barama is a putz! he is so mashugana!’
and a closet faygala, too! ;-)
But oy, so many have been drinking the manischevitz koolaide.
I’ve been suspicious of the media and their polls every since the 1980 presidential race.
The night before the election, the media claimed the race between Carter and Reagan was “too close to call.”
As we all know, the next day the Reagan tidal wave swept across America like Sherman through Georgia.
I lived in California then, and the news media proclaimed Reagan the winner during the afternoon Pacific time, before I even got a chance to go to the polls. When I showed up, I had a big smile on my face.
Here in very liberal Rockland County, NY, there is a very large concentration of Jewish people, ranging from the Chassidim to the Reform. Being very active in the Jewish community, I hear a lot from all corners of the Jewish spectrum. In the past, the general rule was the more Orthodox a person is, the more politically to the right (s)he is. The “progressive” movements were almost universally (over 80%) liberal Dems.
This year, I’m not hearing the loud cacophony of left-wing opinions from the liberal Jews. Of course there are those that are ideologically driven and will vote Dem, but MANY -—dare I say “most” -— of the opinions are that they will vote McCain, even if they have to do so unwillingly. For many, Jeremiah Wright was the tipping point, for others it is the realization that all Israel’s enemies want Obama to win. There are also the disaffected Hillary voters among the Jewish community, and they are MANY, as you might expect.
For one who for much too long has been ashamed of his fellow Jews for their irrational clinging to a liberalism that stands AGAINST most of what Judaism stands FOR, even a hint of a new attitude is surely most welcome!!!!
Wow. I can’t say I’m shocked but that is larger than I suspected. Thanks.
It’s going to get worse for Obama if he doessn’t show up at the AhmaNutJob protest. My understanding is that Obama is demanding some preconditions:
-—That Sarah not be there,
-—and that Obama be allowed to bring his teleprompter.
Thank you, Jews!
What do you think pushes so many Jews toward a liberal viewpoint? I’ve often wondered that...
Bad experiences with the antisemitism of the Czar and his Cossacks drove many Jews into exile and into the propaganda of the Communists/Marxists. Some stayed, some left, some fought them.
Unfortunately, so of my brethren as just plain dumb asses and will believe any crap that the left provides them, and they stay with it like lemming going over a cliff.
Some of us broke away from the doomed herd and more are jumping out of the liberal/left “death march”.
Everything else follows from that.
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