Mac and Sarah are appearing at the anti-Iran rally next week at the UN. The city was in an uproar last year when Ahmadinejad came to town:
Posted on 09/17/2008 4:02:34 PM PDT by Anti-Hillary
The Siena poll, one of the two key polls of New York state voters, has come out with its monthly snapshot of the presidential race in the Empire State. And it’s stunning. It is remarkable, though not eye-opening, that John McCain is now only 5 points behind Barack Obama, 46-41 – not shocking because polls have narrowed to similar margins in New Jersey. (It should be noted, however, that according to a Rasmussen poll released yesterday, Obama is leading in New York by 55-42.)
No, the shocking detail has to do with a wild, 35-point swing toward McCain among Jewish voters. Obama led among them by a margin of 50-37 in August. This month, McCain is actually leading Obama by a margin of 54 percent to 32 percent.
Siena polled 626 likely voters this month. Of those, according to Steve Greenberg, the spokesman for the Siena poll, 77 were Jews, or 12 percent of the sample. That is Siena’s best guess of the size of the Jewish vote in New York state in November. With a sample size that small, the margin of error for the Jewish voter sample is plus-or-minus 11 points.
That means the poll could be off by as many as 11 points in either direction — i.e., McCain could be leading by as little as 11 points or by as many as 33.
The only difference between the September poll and the August poll as a matter of methodology is that in September, Siena polled likely voters, whereas in August it only polled registered voters.
The poll could, of course, be an outlier. But if it even begins to approximate the truth, it is huge news. No Republican has scored more than 39 percent of the Jewish vote in modern times, and that was Ronald Reagan in 1980, following a series of missteps by the Carter administration. These sorts of numbers for McCain have implications in two other states particularly — Florida and Pennsylvania.
In Florida, the implications are obvious. Obama’s own Jewish organizers in Florida are telling the campaign they are finding profound resistance to him, particularly in South Florida. The polling overall there seems to be moving inexorably in McCain’s direction, which is necessary for him; it is nearly impossible to see how he can win the election if he loses Florida.
But what about Pennsylvania? That is a state it appears Obama must win. There are, it is estimated, more than 200,000 Jewish voters in Pennsylvania, a state John Kerry won by 140,000 votes. If we assume Pennsylvania’s 200,000 voting Jews voted in the same way as Jews nationwide in 2004 and went 76-24 for Kerry, we can attribute 150,000 Jewish votes to Kerry, his entire margin of victory plus seven percent. Now imagine if that number had been closer to 50-50. Kerry would have received 100,000 Jewish votes rather than 150,000. Bush would have received 100,000 Jewish votes rather than 50,000. Kerry’s margin of victory would then have shrunk to 40,000 votes.
It appears Obama may have a tougher time in Pennsylvania than Kerry did because of his difficulty attracting the ethnic white vote in the western part of the state. If there is a Jewish swing away from him as well, he really could lose there. And if he loses there and loses Ohio, he is sunk. Ohio has approximately 80,000 Jewish voters, so a swing away from Obama to a 50-50 race would cost him 25,000 votes Kerry presumably received in 2004 — and in a state that Bush won by 121,000 votes.
We’ll need more data from two other states with a significant Jewish population to allow for a measurable sample size in a poll – Florida and California – and a polling firm willing to break out the Jewish vote as Siena has, to see whether this is just statistical smoke or whether Obama has a brushfire he needs to put out somehow before it consumes him.
Well you can hope!
Take their votes. But I wouldn't trust them for a song.
Oy vey! Barama is a putz! he is so mashugana!
My 17yr old son came home from school today unusually full of energy and willingness to talk. He wanted to tell me that in his Social Studies class they were doing a mock up of the electoral votes. I am not sure how they went about this, and its information he did not supply, because he was more psyched that McCain can win PA. He excitedly told me how I had to get out there and go door to door, send letters, do whatever because do you understand Mom that McCain can win PA?
He told me that until the convention his school was full of Obama stickers on book bags and back packs but now thats all changed. The Obama stickers are now fewer and McCain stickers are springing up. Even his most liberal friends are saying well McCain is a pretty cool dude.
I think that kids parrot their parents more so than not.
This is a big change in this PA area.
Perhaps they’ve been asking themselves some fundamental existential questions & realized that Obama is not the answer.
I am hearing from plenty of NYC Jews who wont vote Barama
Wow! Even that town in Rockland County where all of the 2400 voters voted for Hillary? Remember folks, Boxer, Streisand, Schumer, Sanders, Ginsberg all come from the NYC area, IMHO don’t see their supporters going for McCain as most were brought up with the Daily Worker on the kitchen table.
LLS
“All the antisemitism on all these “left wing” forums”
Just wait until Obama loose some close ones and it is the Jewish vote that puts McCain over the top. They will go unleashed.
That said, it will hasten the transfer of (from what I can tell, I am not Jewish and actually don’t knowingly know any Jewish people) natural conservatives to the RNC.
Not that it will be pleasant in the short term.
Not too shocking considering that the Dem is Obama.
God I hate giving that woman credit...Oh, what the heck, Go Hillary!
LOL, Every little bit helps.
http://www.rabbispivak.org/ Rabbi Spivak is dead against Obama and tells the world via shortwave 3 times a week on his show.
Tsores (sp?) on the Dumbocrats.
The left will paint Sarah as ANTI-JEW who wants to convert them to Christianity, or kill them......just wait.
“”already got my scary OBAMA mask courtesy of Recycled Greeting Cards...””
What’s that about?
Good grief, he’s back?
What, Jews not voting for ‘my muslim faith’ Obummer?
Jihad time!
You know...I was a supporter of Clinton being reelected, Gore being elected....but everything changed on 911, and i still remember....
I just can’t believe people have forgotten about 911...3 month memory, just damn
Not all of them. Aren't you using an awfully broad brush?
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